동아시아 FTA 대비 농업부문 연구(2/2차 연도)

Abstract

동아시아 국가들은 유럽, 북미, 남미 등 주요 경제권 국가들에 비해 지역무역협정에 뒤늦게 참여하였다. 동아시아 국가들이 지역무역협정에 적극적으로 나서기 시작한 것은 1990년대 말에 발생한 아시아 지역의 외환위기 이후로 볼 수 있다. 따라서 동아시아 국가들은 지역무역협정 체결 수나 심화 정도에 있어서도 다른 지역에 비해 뒤지고 있다.

세계적인 지역주의의 확산은 유럽 통합에 이어 북미와 남미 국가들의 경제통합 움직임으로 이어지고 있다. 유럽의 지역협력은 지역통합의 완성에 가까운 유럽연합으로 발전하면서 경제는 물론 정치, 문화, 외교, 안보 등 다양한 분야의 협력과 이해의 증진을 통해 역내 화합과 안정에 기여하고 있다. 이러한 지역주의 확산에 대응하고 동아시아 역내 경제협력을 강화하기 위한 다양한 논의가 진행되고 있다. 현재 ASEAN+3(동남아시아 10개국과 한-중-일 3개국) 체제가 주도하고 있는 동아시아 공동체 구상은 경제 활성화는 물론 지역 안정을 위해서도 유럽과 같은 심화된 지역협력체로 발전될 필요가 있다.

이 보고서는 동아시아 국가들이 추구해야 할 지역통합의 초기 단계를 자유무역협정(FTA)으로 보고 FTA 추진 과정에서 농업부문의 문제점과 역할에 대해 분석하고 있다. 이 보고서에서는 2년에 걸쳐 진행된 연구의 2차년도 연구결과로 1차년도에 진행되었던 동아시아 지역협력의 논의 과정과 발전 방향, 동아시아 국가별 농업구조와 경쟁력, 농산물 교역현황 및 잠재력 등을 보완하였고, 특히 동아시아 FTA에 따른 역내 농산물 교역의 변화, 농업부문에 미치는 영향, 농업부문의 문제점과 대응방안 등을 중점적으로 다루었다. 동아시아 FTA는 역내 국가들의 경제 성장에 긍정적인 효과를 가져다 줄 것으로 추정되었다. GTAP 모형에 의하면 동아시아 FTA로 역내 국가들의 GDP는 한국 2.68%, 일본 1.41%, 중국 0.46%, ASEAN 0.76% 증가할 것으로 나타났다. 동아시아 FTA는 무역전환효과에 의해 역외 국가들의 경제에는 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 동아시아 FTA로 인한 기존의 역내 교역 형태의 변화는 거의 없는 것으로 분석되었다.

East Asian countries try to strengthen regional cooperation to cope with deepening and widening regional blocs in Europe and America. There are several forms of possible regional blocs such as free trade area(FTA), economic common market, common market, and union. Free trade area can be a basis for further economic or regional integration. In this study, the role of the agricultural sector and the impacts of free trade area are discussed or evaluated. Trade patterns, competitiveness, tariff barriers and impacts of the FTA are analysed. The desirable role of the agricultural sector and the ways of enhancing agricultural cooperation for the progress of regional integration are proposed. Results of simulation by GTAP show positive GDP growth for all of the member countries from The East Asian FTA. GDP growth is estimated to be 2.68% in Korea, 1.41% in Japan, 0.46% in China, 0.76% in ASEAN. Rice export is estimated to be increased by $290 million in China and by $180 million in ASEAN. Rice export destined to Korea and Japan. Therefor, rice production is expected to decrease by 7.6% in Korea and by 9.8% in Japan. Grain trade other than rice is estimated to show small changes, for example, China's corn export is projected to increase $40 million. Fruits trade is estimated to increase from the East Asian FTA. However increased trade volume would be relatively small compared to rice. China's export of apples and pears is estimated to increase by $10 million and $6 million respectively. Banana export by ASEAN is projected to $6 million. Korea can increase fruit export by $1 million for apples and pears respectively and by $1.5 for grapes. China becomes the biggest beneficiary in vegetable trade from the East Asian FTA. China's export of garlic and onions will increase by $24 million respectively. More than half of China's export is expected be imported by Korea. The change of meat trade from the East Asian FTA is estimated to be smaller than vegetables. ASEAN countries can increase chicken export to Japan and Korea. Korea and China are projected to increase chicken and pork export to ASEAN and Japan in small amount. China's agricultural exports and imports are expected to increase by $5 billion and $3.5 billion from the East Asian FTA. ASEAN's agricultural trade surplus is estimated to be even bigger than China. However Korea and Japan can become looser of th FTA. Therefor there should be a mechanism of compensation for the FTA. Without compensation mechanism, member countries the agricultural sector may become an obstacle of the progress of regional integration. There will be a few difficulties establishing the economic integration including agriculture. To avoid the worst possible role that agriculture might play in the negotiation, cooperative and positive role of agriculture is demanded, which includes reforming the domestic regulations based on the global level. Furthermore, various market openings that would impact on the East Asian agriculture will cause different economic and social problems. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for the changes adopting the new trade environment. When it comes to trade, various non-tariff barriers should be eliminated, and the useful information has to be shared within the East Asia as well as technical standards for agricultural commodities should be developed. In addition, the existing quarantine procedure and customs, commodity standards, labeling, and other important things should be considered to increase the volume and value of agricultural trade within the East Asia. As the East Asia FTA promotes the agricultural trade volume within the East Asia as well as with the other countries, food safety would become more important issues. Thus, persuasive quarantine standard must be proposed to prevent from unnecessary social economic losses within the East Asian markets. Moreover, consistent economic cooperation and complementary trade relation should be maintained and developed as well. For the means of compensation for the various market openings, it is necessary to launch various economic cooperation activities for rural areas and the agricultural industries within the East Asia. Furthermore, technical cooperation, labor exchange, natural resource management, and investment in marketing and processing sections must be considered to accomplish the ultimate objective of being a "Single Market".

Researchers: Choi, Sei-Kyun and Shin, You-Seon E-mail address: skchoi@krei.re.kr