농업부문 전망모형 KREI-ASMO 2008 운용·개발 연구

Abstract

Since 1996, KREI-ASMO (KREI - Agricultural Simulation Model) has been used by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI). A database for the model has been updated and reestimated annually to project the mid- and long-term outlook of Korean agriculture under various alternative policy scenarios. However, since the environment surrounding the Korean agricultural industry is fast changing, the KREI-ASMO model does not appropriately project possible policy options. Thus, a new simulation model is needed to reflect today's Korean agriculture including the fast-changing international trade regimes such as FTAs and WTO/DDA. A modeling team was established at KREI in 2007 and it developed a new dynamic simulation model called KASMO (Korea Agricultural Simulation Model) in 2008. KASMO is comprised of six sub-models for the following six sectors: grains sector, vegetables sector, fruits sector, specialty crops sector, livestock sector, and total agricultural value sector for the entire Korean agriculture. In addition, the statistical database has been updated every year and the structure of the model has been improved to facilitate the role of KASMO.

Researchers: Young-Su Cho, Dae-Seob Lee, Tae-Hun Kim, and Sang-Mi Park Research period: 2008. 1. - 2008. 11. e-mail Addresses: yscho@krei.re.kr, ldaeseob@krei.re.kr, taehun@kre.re.kr, psm801@krei.re.kr