농업부문 전망모형 KREI-ASMO 2004 운용·개발 연구

Abstract

KREI-ASMO (Korea Agricultural Simulation Model) was developed by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) in 1995, and has been used to produce mid- and long-term outlooks of the Korean agriculture and to come up with various alternative policies. KREI-ASMO is a partial equilibrium model as well as a dynamic ex-anti simulation model for the Korean agricultural sector. Especially, the model has been applied as a useful quantitative analysis tool to forecast demand-supply situation by commodity, to make agricultural outlook, and to estimate and analyze various policies. KREI renews the statistical data-sets and improves the structure of the model every year to ensure the proper functionality of KREI-ASMO. In this context, this study is carried out annually. KREI-ASMO can be divided into five sub-modules as follows: 1) the module for forecasting macro-economic variables; 2) the module for forecasting input-prices; 3) the module for cultivating sector outlook; 4) the module for livestock sector outlook; and 5) the module for forecasting agricultural total product value and total added value in agriculture.

Also, the model covers the imported commodities, such as rice, pulses, miscellaneous grains, oilseeds, red peppers, Chinese cabbage, white radishes, barley, garlic, onions, other vegetables, apples, Asian pears, grapes, tangerines, peaches, persimmons, beef cattle, dairy products, pigs, and chickens. The main points of this study are as follows. First of all, the reference year of the model changes according to the change of reference year in the national accounting system. And, according to renewed statistical data-set and change of reference year, each individual equation and module, such as acreage allocation module, rice production cost module, agricultural GDP and income module, and each commodity module, is re-estimated.