기후변화에 따른 농업부문 영향분석과 대응전략 (2/2차연도)

Abstract

기후변화는 미래 사회의 변화를 주도할 메가트랜드로 세계 곳곳에서 피부로 실감할 정도로 나타나고 있다. 우리나라의 지난 100년간 기온이 지구 평균 상승 수준보다 훨씬 높은 1.5℃ 상승하여, 농작물 재배적지가 변동하고 병해충 피해가 증가하는 등 농업부문에서 상당한 변화가 나타나고 있다. 국내외적으로 기후변화에 대응하여 온실가스 감축과 흡수를 통한 완화 대책을 추진하고 있으나, 지구온난화는 상당한 기간 동안 지속될 것으로 분석되고 있다. 특히 농업부문의 경우 기후변화에 민감하기 때문에 기후변화 적응대책 마련이 시급하다. 기후변화에 따른 적절한 대응책은 미래농업의 농정방향 설정과 중장기적인 지역농업발전 계획이나 농가 영농계획 수립에 꼭 필요하다. 이 보고서는 ?기후변화에 따른 농업부문 영향분석과 대응전략?에 관한 2년간 연구과제의 최종 결과물이다. 1차 연도인 2008년에는 기후변화 실태분석과 전망, 기후변화 관련 농업부문 영향 진단, 주요국의 농업부문 영향분석 사례 검토, 기후변화가 농업경제에 미치는 파급영향을 분석하였다. 2차 연도인 2009년에는 기후변화 파급영향을 종합적으로 분석하고 주요 농산물의 주산지 변동과 농가의 적응 수용력 분석 및 적응대책의 우선순위 평가 등을 기초로 단계별 적응 프로그램 등 기후변화 대응 농업부문 마스터플랜을 제시하였다.

The average temperature in Korea has increased by 1.5℃ over the last 100 years, the winter season became shorter with a longer summer season, and the time for the blooming of spring flowers has gotten earlier due to global warning. As results of these changes, agricultural productivity decreased, the cultivation regions for crops moved northward, and damages from wintering harmful insects increased. Scientific diagnosis and evaluation of climate change is very important in setting the vision for future farming and the direction for agricultural policy. It will provide useful information for the establishment of countermeasures such as long-term regional agricultural development plans and farm households' planning. This study was implemented to make a suggestion for systematic and step-by-step countermeasures to such changes through in-depth analysis of climate change and its impact on agricultural sector. In order to accomplish the purpose of the study, this project was planned as a 2-year task, and in 2008, the first year of the task, the study covered current status analysis and forecast of climate change, diagnosis of agricultural production pursuant to climate change, review of cases for impact analysis in agricultural sector in major countries, and the ripple effect of climate change on agricultural economy. In 2009, the general ripple effect of climate change was analyzed while suggesting a master plan to cope with climate change in agricultural sector. The analysis was based on the evaluation by analysts and experts of the priority for the application of countermeasures in major crop production regions and farmhouses' adaptation and accommodation capabilities against climate change. This report consists of general reports of the first and second year study. Chapter 1 presented the needs for the study, preceding studies and method of the study. Chapter 2 described the actual state and outlook for climate change at home and abroad. Chapter 3 covered basic concepts and theoretical approach to cope with climate change in agricultural sector. Chapter 4 reviewed general impacts of climate change on the agricultural ecosystem, including climate factors' influence, shift in major production areas of crops, and economic impacts. Chapter 5 described farmers' awareness of climate change, their attitudes to coping with climate change, and their decision making under the risk and uncertainty. Chapter 6 presented impacts of climate change on agricultural sector in major countries (Japan, EU, England and Australia), and countermeasures in the respective countries. In Chapter 7, a basic direction of countermeasures to climate change is discussed along with the master plan for adaptation and core tasks. Lastly in Chapter 8, the summary and conclusion are presented. The major findings of this study are summarized as follows: First, the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) forecasted that average temperature will be increased by 1.5℃ by 2020, 3.0℃ by 2050 and 5.0℃ by 2080 from the 30-year average of 1971~2000. They also forecasted that precipitation will increase by 5% by 2020, 7% by 2050 and 15% by 2080. Second, due to the increase in temperature by global warming, the appropriate region for cultivation is moving and new kinds of harmful insects are generated, which are expected to result in a change of crop species and diffusion of damage to crops. Especially apples, peaches, grapes and beans are expected to suffer more damage due to brown grasshoppers, and the area being damaged by rice stripe virus (RSV) will be moved northward while the damage is extended nationwide. Third, the result of an analysis on climate variables by the kind of disaster which causes damage to crops shows that damages by typhoon, strong blast and snow were increased due to the increase in annual average temperature, while damages by seismic wave, strong blast, storm and snow were increased due to the increase in pole temperature difference. The analysis also showed that as precipitation increased, the damage from heavy rain increased, whereas the damage from hail, thunderbolt and strong blast decreased, and the damage by heavy rain and typhoon increased as the intensity of precipitation increased. Fourth, the result of an analysis on the factors that have contributed to stagnant yield of rice in the periods of 2002~2003 and 2006~2007 showed that the 'weather' factor had a far more impact on the yield than the 'technology' factor. In the period of 2002~2003, weather had a contributing factor of 76.4% whereas technology had a contributing factor of 23.6%. In the period of 2006~2007, weather had a contributing factor of 66.5 % whereas technology had a contributing factor of 33.5%. In both periods, weather had a significantly bigger impact than technology. Fifth, a crop simulation analysis was attempted to check the influence of means of adaptation to climate change, and the result of the analysis showed that as global warming progressed, the quantity of rice decreased when cultivation timing was fixed, regardless of the ecotype of rice plant, the quantity of nitrogenous fertilization, and irrigation condition. When cultivation timing was adjusted, the quantity of rice was rather increased. This result implies that, in the case of agricultural sector, risk can be minimized by developing production technologies adapted to climate change. Sixth, the shifting of major production regions due to climate change was observed. In the case of apples, peaches, grapes and the 'Hallabong' citrus fruit, the cultivated regions moved northward while the cultivated regions for apple and grape expanded nationwide. And in the case of tropical crops, some of which are cultivated on Jeju Island, it was analyzed that a considerable number of tropical fruit items can be cultivated on the island within a number of years. Seventh, for the analysis of climate change's effect on agricultural productivity, the Kernel regression was applied to four crops: rice, cabbage, radish and apple. The result of the regression analysis showed that, in the case of rice, the rise of temperature by 1℃ increased the production quantity by approximately 24.4kg per 10a when the average temperature during cultivation period is lower than 19℃ due to climate factors. When the average temperature is higher than 20℃, the production quantity fell by approximately 6.2kg per 10a. In the case of cabbage, radish and apple, the influence of climate factors to productivity varied by item and region. Eighth, for the analysis of climate change's influence on farming assets, the Ricardian model was applied, and according to the analysis, the price of farmland per ha decreased by 14.55~19.24 million won when annual average temperature (12.4℃) increased by 1℃. An analysis was conducted to identify climate change's influence on gross agricultural income by applying the Ricardian model, and the result of the analysis showed that the increase of temperature by 1℃ reduced gross agricultural income by 2.6~4 million won per ha, which is bigger than the influence on farmland price. Ninth, the result of a survey showed that farmers' awareness of climate change appeared to be high and they felt unusual changes in weather and an increase in diseases and harmful insects. The survey result also showed that farmers a had keen interest in the countermeasures to climate change. They showed a high willingness to participate in the adaptation plan at the farmhouse level in the future, but there were bottlenecks such as lack of techniques and knowledge, insufficient information, and shortage of labor. Tenth, the Expectation Utility Model was used to analyze the benefits of adopting means of adaptation in response to climate change for the period of 2011~2040. The difference of expected income depending on the application or non-application of means of adaptation was found, and the analysis showed that there will be an income difference of approximately 790 thousand won in Gwangju, 1.2 million won in Milyang and 1.4 million in Jeonju. The probability of farmers applying means of adaptation was calculated based on the model even though it is not a direct way of calculating it. According to the calculation, it is anticipated that approximately 65% of farmers would adopt means of adaption. What this shows is that farmers are keenly interested in adapting to climate change and that their capability to accommodate appropriate technology is high. Lastly, the result of an evaluation on the priority of means of adaptation in agricultural sector revealed that development of technology and management of agricultural infrastructure are the most important means of adaptation. It showed improvement of plant breeding to be the first priority, management of water supply for agriculture the second priority, and development of production technology the third priority in all cases of short, medium and long-term planning. Up to now, the main focus of countermeasures to climate change in agricultural sector was given to the measures to mitigate greenhouse gas, but in consideration of the inevitability of global warming and especially the weather-dependent characteristics of agriculture, more interest and policy-based support will have to be given to the measures for adaptation to climate change. Countermeasures to climate change in agricultural sector are especially required to actively change the perception on climate change and expand the common understanding to minimize the risk and utilize the risk as an opportunity. In order to accomplish this, appropriate education and training programs will have to be developed and operated for farmers, government officials and people in charge of relevant organizations. In order to effectively implement the adaptation strategy in agricultural sector, it is important to have roles appropriately assigned to the subjects concerned, such as government officials, farmers, research professionals and people in charge of relevant organizations, and establish an integrated administration system to comprehensively plan and drive countermeasures to climate change. In order to perform a systematic study of climate change's impact on agriculture and prepare countermeasures, it will be important to organize joint research among relevant sciences - agricultural science, ecology, agricultural engineering, hydrology, meteorology and agricultural economics. To ensure higher reliability of the analysis, an integrated simulation model, which connects the scenario-based forecast with the characteristics of agriculture and socio-economic factors, has to be developed continuously. On top of that, future study will have to perform more concrete and systematic analysis of economic and policy effects expected from utilizing different means of adaptation in agricultural sector.