기후변화 대응 전북의 미래 농업기술 개발 전략

Abstract

우리나라의 기온은 지난 100년 동안 지구 평균기온 상승 수준인 0.74℃보다 훨씬 높은 1.5℃가 상승하여, 농작물 재배적지 변동, 이상기상 발생에 따른 농작물 생육부진, 병해충 피해 증가 등 농업부문에서 상당한 영향을 미치고 있다. 농업부문의 경우 기후변화에 매우 취약하기 때문에 기후변화의 위험을 최소화할 수 있도록 적절한 기술개발 등 적응대책이 요구되고 있다. 이 보고서는 전라북도농업기술원의 연구용역 의뢰로 추진된 기후변화 대응 전북의 미래 농업기술 개발 전략수립에 관한 프로젝트의 최종 결과물이다. 전라북도는 벼농사 중심이고, 다양한 특화작목들이 재배되는 지역이다. 기후변화에 따라 벼와 특화작목 재배에 미치는 영향은 어떠한지, 기후변화 적응을 위해 어떠한 작목을 재배하고 기술들이 개발되어야 하는지 등은 중요한 이슈로 다루어지고 있다.

이 연구에서는 기후변화가 전북농업에 미치는 영향을 체계적으로 분석하고, 기후변화에 대응하기 위한 기술개발 전략으로 신소득 작목의 적응재배기술 개발, 온실가스 저감기술개발, 이상기상 대응 기술 개발, 생태계 변동 모니터링 및 DB화, 기후변화 대응 통합관리시스템 구축 등을 제시하였다.

This research was performed to establish a comprehensive strategy to develop agricultural technology for coping with climate change in Jeonbuk Province. First, a systematic analysis was performed to identify the effects of climate change on agriculture in Jeonbuk Province. As to the structure of this report, Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 deal with the circumstances and prospects to cope with climate change in Jeonbuk Province. Chapter 3 deals with the approaches to cope with climate change including the theories to cope with climate change, the evaluation of weakness of the theories. Chapter 4 described the actual state of agricultural technology of Jeonbuk Province to cope with climate change including the survey on the reaction of farmers and policy related officials on climate change and the diagnosis on agricultural technology of Jeonbuk Province. Chapter 5 presents the development strategy for agricultural technology to cope with climate change while presenting overall summary and conclusion in the Chapter 6. The average temperature of Jeonbuk Province in 2009 was 12.7℃, and it is projected to increase gradually to 13.1℃ in 2030. By season, winter is projected to contribute the most to the increase of average temperature, followed by autumn and spring. And the difference of polar temperatures, which is the difference between highest and lowest temperatures, will be increased in winter and spring. The CERES-Rice model was used to analyze the rice productivity in Jeonbuk region pursuant to climate change. According to the analysis, the yield will drop by 5.9% if temperature increases by 2℃ compared to average years, and 14.2% if temperature increases by 5℃. An analysis of rice blight and insects showed that blast will increase if the precipitation strength index in July increases, while sheath blight will increase if the amount of sunshine drops in May. The results also showed that the area damaged by rice leaf roller will increase if the average temperature from January to February and the precipitation strength index of July remain high, while the area damaged by Echinocnemus squamous, which is an exotic insect, will increase if the average temperature in January is high and the amount of sunshine in June is low. In order to identify the usefulness of adaptation means to counter climate change, a simulation was conducted using the ORYZA2000 model, and the result showed that rice production amount will decrease if the farming season is fixed. However, if the farming season is adjusted or more nitrogenous fertilizer is applied, rice production amount will increase. What this implies is that the risks to rice production can be reduced by developing technologies for adaptation to climate change. The projected emission volume of BAU greenhouse gas in the agricultural sector for Jeonbuk in 2020 is calculated based on the IPCC's guideline, and it is forecast to be 3.2% higher than that of 2005. This emission volume is higher than the national target of a 4.0% reduction in greenhouse gas from that of 2005, and thus an appropriate strategy should be made to cope with increases in greenhouse gas. The results of a questionnaire survey of farmers and experts suggest that the reasons for the difficulty in adapting to climate change are lack of knowledge and technology and insufficient information. The survey also showed that new types of agricultural technologies are urgently needed to cope with abnormal weather and climate disasters. According to the Test Research Report of Agricultural Technology Institute of Jeonbuk Province, the technologies for forecasting and evaluating the impact of climate change are mostly at the practical application stage. However, greenhouse gas reduction technology is still at the initial stage and therefore more focus should be placed on developing relevant technologies. An SWOT analysis showed that there is a need to develop climate adaptation technologies which can be accommodated well by major farms and production regions. The fusion technologies that utilize state-of-the-art technologies, such as IT and BT, are also needed to be developed as part of a strength and opportunity utilization strategy. As a supplementary strategy to cope with weaknesses and risks, it is also necessary to develop new revenue-generating crops and secure research experts to cope with climate change. According to agricultural experts of Jeonbuk, the region's major crops will remain competitive for a considerable period of time regardless of climate change. They expect fig and kiwi fruit to be competitive in coastal regions and Hallabong, kiwi fruit and blueberry in plain regions. The experts recommend the following tasks to cope with climate change: introduction of temperate and subtropical crops; development of technologies for better adaptation of vegetables, medicinal herbs, and flowering plants to abnormal weather; monitoring of changes in ecosystem and database building; evaluation of crop productivity and farmland pursuant to increase in temperature; development and distribution of LED utilizing technologies; distribution of terrestrial heat pumps for facility horticulture; technology development for seawater farming; and setting up of an integrated climate change management system.

Researchers: Kim Chang-Gil, Jeong Hak-Kyun, Jang Jeong-Kyung, and Kim Tae-Hoon Research period: 2009. 12. - 2010. 9. E-mail address: changgil@krei.re.kr