농업부문 전망모형 KREI-KASMO 2010 운용·개발 연구

Abstract

본 연구의 목적은 매년 데이터 세트를 갱신하여 모형을 유지하고, 산출된 예측치에 대한 정량적, 정성적 분석을 통해 품목별 수급 모형을 수정 보완하고, 품목 수를 확대하는 것에 있다. 이를 위해 2010년에는 품목자료 업데이트 및 신규 품목(오리, 조사료) 분석모듈 추가, 한국은행 거시지표 변경 등을 모형에 반영하였으며, 추가적으로 농촌농가인구모형(KAP: Korea Agricultural Population model)을 KASMO와 연계시켰다.

Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) developed KREI-KASMO (Korea Agricultural Simulation Model) to improve mid- and long-term supply/demand forecasts of agricultural commodities and enhance policy analysis. Currently KREI is working to improve the performance and robustness of the simulation model.

The purpose of this study was to keep the main structure of the simulation model intact by updating statistical data sets annually and seek improvements to the model through quantitative and qualitative analysis of forecast data. The study also aimed to revise the supply-demand equation of each product item and expand the number of products on the list for market projections.

To achieve these goals, we developed new modules (for market analysis of duck and roughage) and updated product data. Changes in macro economic data of Bank of Korea were also reflected in the model. Also, an agricultural population model (KAP: Korea agricultural and rural population model) was developed and linked with KASMO.

This report is comprised of 4 chapters. Chapter 1 explains the purpose of developing the model and the need for the study, and reviews preceding papers. Section 1 of chapter 2 introduces basic assumptions and features of KASMO, and sections 2 and 3 explain the improvements reflected in the model with performance results. Chapter 3 introduces recent economic trends and future projections of agriculture. Chapter 4 presents in detail necessary improvements and tasks to be carried out for future operation of KASMO. The variables of the model are explained in the appendix.

Some of the projections made by the model are as follows:

Total agricultural production is forecast to grow to 42.6 trillion won in 2010, up 3.0 percent from a year ago. Among the cultivated crops, the total production value of grains and fruits is expected to decrease, whereas the other crops are expected to grow. The total production value of livestock products, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 4.9 percent from a year ago. Overall, the total production value of agriculture is forecast to grow slowly in the medium and long term.

The total value added of agriculture is forecast to grow to 20.9 trillion won in 2010, up 3.8 percent from the previous year. The total value added of crops is expected to grow by 5.0 percent because of increases in vegetable price due to abnormal climate changes, while that of livestock products is expected to decrease by 1.3 percent from a year ago due to an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease at the beginning and end of the year. The total value added of agriculture is forecast to decrease and stay at a low level for the next ten years from now.

The gross income of agriculture is estimated at 12.3 trillion won in 2010, crops at 9.8 trillion won, and livestock products at 2.5 trillion won. The gross income of agriculture is to forecast to decrease to 10.9 trillion won in 2020.

The agricultural input price index is forecast to grow to 152.7 in 2010, up 1.3 percent from the year before. It is expected to increase slightly in the medium and long term.

The agricultural farm price index is forecast to grow to 117.0 in 2010, up 15.9 percent from the year before. It is expected to decline slightly to 97.7 in 2020.

The total income per household is forecast to grow to 3.3 million won in 2010, up 6.9 percent from the year before. It is forecast to grow to 41 million won in 2020.