국내산 돼지고기(한돈) 시장 전망 및 중장기 발전방안 연구

Abstract

소비자들은 높은 국내산 돼지고기 가격으로 인해 값싼 수입 돼지고기로 눈을 돌리고 있으며, 이러한 수입 돼지고기 소비증가는 향후 소비자들의 수입 돼지고기에 대한 인식을 변화시켜 국내산 돼지고기 소비가 감소할 수 있다는 우려가 제기되고 있다.

2004년 칠레와의 FTA에 이어 올해는 EU와의 FTA가 발효되었으며, 미국과의 FTA도 내년부터 발효될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 주요 돼지고기 수출국들과의 자유무역협정 체결로 국내산 돼지고기와 수입 돼지고기의 경쟁은 더욱 심화되고, 수입 돼지고기는 국내산 돼지고기 시장을 점차 잠식해 나아갈 것이다.

이러한 상황에서 본 연구는 국내산 돼지고기(한돈)의 경쟁력 향상을 위한 정책방향을 살펴보고, 생산성 향상을 위한 전략과 수입 돼지고기에 대한 차별화 전략을 제시하였다.

The purpose of this study is to establish the middle- and long-term strategies which strengthen the competitiveness of the domestic pork to prepare for increase in pork import. This study analyzes the impacts of the out-break of foot-and-mouth disease and pork-related tariff exemption and forecasts supply and demand in the pork market changes caused by FTA. In spite of the increase in imported pork quantity due to tariff exemption, Korea pork industry shows a rapid recovery but the speed of recovery is expected to be slowed down after hog population reaches the 9million in 2013. It is forecasted to be 700,000~800,000 ton for domestic pork production and 300,000~350,000 ton for imported pork in the long-run by KREI KASMO. Therefore, the market share of imported pork will be 30~35% in 2021. Although foot-and-mouth disease broke last winter, pork consumption was not decreased and pork demand is expected to be continuously increased. Consumers consider that the origin is an important factor when they buy pork and they believe that domestic pork is fresher, safer, and more delicious than imported pork. The results of the survey show that comsumer is willing to pay 600~900 won/100g more for domestic pork belly than for imported pork belly. However, demand for high quality imported pork is forecasted to be increased in the future, as a result, the market share of imported pork will be 30~40% in 2021. Vertical integration leaded by agricultural cooperatives should be established to get competitiveness in the Korea pork industry. The vertical integration can improve price competitiveness and quality of domestic pork by increasing the productivity and decreasing marketing cost. Denmark pork industry had vertically integrated during 80's~90's, so that they could accomplish a global competitiveness by farm scale improvement and stabilization of the farm business. Differentiation strategies in marketing are needed to secure market share of domestic pork. Korean consumers consider that domestic pork is fresher, safer, and more delicious than imported pork, so the differentiation strategies should be focused on this consumers' conception. As the differentiation strategies, environmental reform in farm, control of diseases, invigoration of distribution with boxed meat, sanitary supervision, building-up brand power, enforcement of country of origin labelling, history traceability, grade labelling, and expansion of specialized meat store could be recommended tasks to differentiate domestic port from imported pork. Besides the differentiation strategy, cost cutting strategies are needed to strengthen competitiveness by improving productivity in the Korea hog industry. Modernization of breeding and processing facilities, separation of fatting and breeding farms, stabilization of feed price, horizontal integration in farm level and slaughter/processing level should be fulfilled to improve productivity for the Korea hog industry.

Researchers: In-bae Ji, Min-kook Jeong, Hyun-joong Kim, Woo-jin Song Research period: 2011. 8 ~ 2011. 11 E-mail address: jiinbae@krei.re.kr