기후변화 대응을 위한 농림수산식품산업 전략수립 연구

Abstract

지구가 온난화됨에 따라 우리나라의 농업, 산림, 수산의 경우 생산량이 감소하고, 수자원의 경우 증발산량이 변하며, 식품·유통의 경우 각종 세균번식을 유도하여 식품 안전에 큰 위협이 되는 등 부정적인 영향이 심화되고 있다. 세계는 국제협약을 통해 온실가스 의무감축을 현실화하고 있으며, 우리나라도 2020년 온실가스 배출 전망치 대비 30% 감축을 목표로 설정한 바 있다. 농림수산식품부문도 정부의 이러한 국가온실가스 감축정책에 적극적으로 대응하고, 전 영역에 걸쳐 기후변화에 따른 위험을 최소화하는 동시에 기회를 최대화할 수 있는 체계적이고 실효성 있는 대응방안 마련이 매우 시급하다.

이 보고서는 ｢기후변화 대응을 위한 농림수산식품산업 전략수립 연구｣에 관한 정책과제의 최종결과물이다. 기후변화가 농림수산식품산업에 미치는 영향을 체제적으로 분석하였고, 국가온실가스 중기감축목표에 대응하기 위해 농림수산식품산업의 온실가스 감축잠재력을 분석하였다. 한계감축비용 분석, 주요국 기후변화 대응사례 분석, AHP 우선순위 분석 등을 바탕으로 체계적인 기후변화 대응전략을 제시하였다. 특히 기후변화 완화를 위해 배출권거래제 도입, 저탄소직불제 프로그램 도입 등 경제적 수단의 활용, 규제적 수단의 활용, 연구 및 기술개발, 기술보급 및 교육 등의 핵심과제가 필요하고, 기후변화 적응을 위해 적응기술개발, 기반시설관리 강화, 경제적 인센티브 활용 등의 핵심과제가 필요함을 제시하였다.

This study aims to establish schemes for rationally reducing greenhouse gas to comply with the national policy for greenhouse gas abatement, to present effective policy programs for attaining the abatement target, and to present appropriate solutions for each sectors through analysis of the impact of climate change on the agro-fishery food industry and policy analysis. This report consists of eight chapters. Chapter 1 describes the necessity and purpose of this study, a review of prior studies, and the method and scope of this study. Chapter 2 describes an analysis of current situation and related policies for the agro-fishery and food industry in connection with climate change. Chapter 3 describes approaches to coping with climate changes, the impact of climate change, approaches to adapting to climate change, approaches to mitigating greenhouse gas, etc. Chapter 4 describes the impact of climate change on agriculture, forestry, fishery, water resources, food and distribution. Chapter 5 describes the current system for managing the greenhouse gas abatement target, estimation of greenhouse gas abatement, and analysis of marginal abatement costs, in the agro-fishery food industry. Chapter 6 describes cases of actions in the agriculture sector of major countries including the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland and Australia, against climate change. Chapter 7 describes comprehensive strategies to cope with climate change, e.g., the approaches to establishing strategies, mitigation strategies and adaptation strategies, strategies against climate change, overhaul of regulations and systems. Lastly, Chapter 8 provides a summary and concluding remarks. The analysis of the volume of used energy and the characteristics of emitted greenhouse gas in the agro-fishery sector showed that oil has been used for heating in more than 90% of horticultural facility area, which implies a high dependence on oil for heating. Most of emitted greenhouse gases from the tilling sector are attributed to the emission of methane by cultivating rice and nitrous oxide by inputting chemical fertilizers or livestock excretions into agricultural land. According to statistics, these is a trend of reduced greenhouse gas in the tilling sector of Korea as a result of reduced area for rice cultivation, and is not led by substantial application of technology for abating greenhouse gas. It is considered that most of the agro-fishery food sector is vulnerable to climate change. In agriculture, forestry and fishery, more and more negative impacts have been observed in relation to climate change, e.g., reductions in production volume, changing patterns optimum land for production, increased occurrence of diseases and harmful pests, etc. With respect to the water resources, as the temperature in the Korean peninsula increases by 1℃, the actual volume of evaporation has changed by 3.4%~5.3%, and it is predicted that the scale and the frequency of floods will increase. Also, in terms of food and distribution, bacterial pests will multiply to significantly threaten food safety, and to result in unstable demand and supply of agricultural products. The analysis of potential greenhouse gas abatement in the agro-fishery food industry is estimated from 2,611,000~3,626,000 tons (compared to BAU, 9.0~12.5%) in the agriculture, forestry and fishery industry, and 308,000 tons (compared to BAU, 5.0%) in the food industry, by 2020. Estimation of the volume of potential abatement in each sector of the agriculture, forestry and fishery industry showed 1,967,000~3,626,000 tons in agriculture, 617,000~1,071,000 tons in livestock farming, 26,000~34,000 tons in fishery, and 600~1,700 tons in water resources, by 2020. With respect to greenhouse gas abatement technologies, analysis of the marginal abatement costs, which is defined as an additional cost for unit abatement of greenhouse gas, showed that geothermal heat pumps were the most cost-effective technology, followed by multi-ply thermal insulation curtains, application of LED to perilla, cultivation of green manure crops, and biogas plants for reduction of greenhouse gases. This implies that decision of policy priority for the cost effective solutions through analysis of marginal abatement costs can contribute to achieving the target of greenhouse gas abatement in the agro-fishery food industry with the limited budgets. Review of the solutions by major countries against climate change showed similarities, but some strategy were shown to be unique to characteristics of each country. For instance, the US has divided agricultural land into unused land and cultivated land to apply a program for mitigating greenhouse gas, and provides offset credits for abating greenhouse gas in agriculture through the Chicago Climate Exchange, which is the voluntary carbon market. Japan encourages the consumption of low-carbon products through ‘CO2 labelling’ and also has employed the Low Carbon Direct Payment System of menu type (direct support grant for environment conserving farming) for farming of high environment conservation since 2011. The UK’s program against climate change includes a scheme for indirectly reducing greenhouse gas through the agricultural programs in nitrogen- sensitive regions. Germany has increasingly in greenhouse gas abatement through the programs for supporting investment in agriculture, and great investment has been made in the biogas system and storage of organic compost. Denmark has promoted the schemes for sustainable agriculture and actions for the aquatic environment step by step. Switzerland has connected an ecological standard to the direct payment system to grant the direct payment to farmers who complied with the ecological standard. Climate change initiatives in the Netherlands aim at significantly improving energy efficiency through the greenhouse horticulture policy, and focus on limiting the scale of livestock farming to reduce emitted CH4 and on installing climate buffer zones to reduce damages due to climate change. Australia provides carbon offset credits and voluntary carbon offset credits according to the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), and focuses on improving the recovering capability of the agricultural system and establishment of the capability of local communities. Required key projects for promoting the strategy for mitigating climate change include use of economic measures, e.g., introduction of emission trading and introduction of the low carbon direct payment programs, use of regulation measures, research and technology development, dissemination of technology and training, use of greenhouse gas absorption sources. Required key projects for promoting strategies for adaptation to climate change include development of adaptation technology, enhancement of infrastructure management, use of economic incentives, enhancement of human power training, establishment of monitoring systems, use of application and management of technology to farmers, etc. Interdisciplinary studies among agriculture, ecology, agricultural engineering, hydrology, meteorology, agricultural economics, etc., are very important for the systematic analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture and developing strategies to cope with climate change. For more reliable analysis of the impact of climate change, it is necessary to continue integrated model development, e.g., analysis of simulations to connect the prediction result for each climate change scenario to specific agricultural characteristics, and economic analysis to draw connections to socio-economic factors.

Researchers: Chang-Gil Kim, Hak-Kyun Jeong, Yoon-Hyung Kim, Tae-Hoon Kim and Dong-Hyun Moon Research period: 2011. 6. - 2011. 11. E-mail address: changgil@krei.re.kr