해외곡물시장 동향과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축방안

Abstract

최근 곡물수요가 지속적으로 증가하는 가운데, 자원제약, 유가변동 및 기후변화 등의 요인으로 국제 곡물시장의 불안정성이 지속되고 있다. 국제 곡물가격의 상승은 우리나라와 같은 수입국의 입장에서 곡물수입에 더 많은 비용을 지출해야 한다는 것을 의미하고, 곡물가격의 변동성 확대는 보다 큰 가격변동 위험에 직면하게 된다는 것을 의미한다.

반면 우리나라의 세계 곡물시장에 대한 정보는 해외 관련 기관이나 언론사에 크게 의존하고 있다. 해외기관으로부터 입수하는 정보는 단편적이고 2차적인 자료로, 해외곡물시장의 동향을 신속하게 파악하고 능동적으로 대처하기 어렵다. 따라서 해외곡물시장의 변화를 체계적으로 분석하고, 필요한 정보를 효율적으로 보급할 수 있는 방안을 마련할 필요가 있다.

이 연구는 해외곡물시장의 변동 상황에 대한 신속하고 체계적인 파악과 분석을 위한 정보시스템의 구축방안을 마련하는데 그 목적이 있다. 궁극적인 목표는 해외곡물시장의 변동 상황에 대한 포괄적이고 체계적인 정보를 적시에 제공할 수 있는 해외곡물시장정보시스템을 구축하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 국제곡물시장의 변동과 관련된 정보를 체계적으로 분류하고 해외시장 정보를 포괄할 수 있는 단계적 구축방안을 제시하였다.

Recent surge in international grain prices significantly increased the absolute price level, along with expanded volatility in grain prices. From the perspective of the importing country such as Korea, the rise in international grain prices level and volatility means more money is required to import grains with greater risk. On the other hand, our current information on the world grain market is largely dependent on the foreign agencies and media. Since our current information is mostly fragmented and secondary materials, it is difficult to identify and proactively deal with the sudden changes in the international grain market. For the purpose of building new information system to effectively analyze and efficiently disseminate the information on changes in international grain markets, current major information systems of the futures markets such as CME and government agencies such as U.S. and FAO are systematically analyzed as the initial step. Based on that, this study provides establishment plan to build our new information system that can provide our proactive assessment and future prospects on the world grain market. The objective of this study is to provide establishment plan to build information system for the quick identification and systematic analysis of the international grain market situation. The ultimate goal is to establish the world grain information system that can provide comprehensive and detailed information on the international grain market fluctuations in a timely manner. To accomplish this objective, the information related with the international grain market fluctuation is systematically classified and the step-by-step building measures are provided. In order to establish efficient grain market information system, we need to systematically understand and analyze piecemeal changes in the individual market in terms of overall international grain markets. From this perspective, we need to establish new information system to provide the basic supply and demand information on a regular basis at the early stage of building process. Based on this, the phased plan should be set out to extend it for the more detailed market information step by step. Ultimately, our new information system should provide the comprehensive and detailed information on the international grain market in a timely manner The new information system should be operated by the so-called 『food security Commission』that consists of government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and industry experts. We also need evaluation mechanisms on the established information system. In addition, the new information system should be able to reflect any suggestions and comments.

Researchers: Myung-Hwan Sung, Dong-Gyu Park, Dae-Heum Kwon, Woong-Yun Lee, Yoon-Hee Kim E-mail address: mhsung@krei.re.kr