한·중 농산물 경쟁력 및 교역장벽 분석 :자유무역협정(FTA) 체결에 따른 농업부문 대응전략

Abstract

WTO/DDA 협상이 교착상태로 접어듦에 따라 전 세계적으로 지역무역협정이 급속하게 확산되고 있다. 한·중 양국은 민간공동연구에 이어 산·관·학 공동연구를 완료하고 공식협상에 앞서 민감품목에 대한 사전협의를 진행하고 있다. 민간공동연구나 산·관·학 공동연구 과정에서도 확인되었듯이 한·중 FTA 협상에서 농업분야는 양국 간 이해가 상충되는 대표적인 분야로 전망된다. 특히 대부분의 농산물이 중국산에 비해 경쟁력이 낮은 것으로 분석되어 농업분야는 우리나라의 입장에서 가장 민감한 분야가 될 것이다. 한·중 수교 이후 양국 간 농산물 교역구조는 식량작물의 교역 비중이 대폭 감소하고 채소류와 가공식품의 비중이 지속적으로 확대되는 방향으로 변화하였다. 대 중국 농산물 수입구조는 가공식품류와 채소류 중심으로 더욱 고착화 될 것으로 전망된다. 이는 식량작물의 경우 중국 국내 수급 상황에 따라 교역의 불확실성이 매우 크고, 과실류와 축산물은 양국 간 교역을 실질적으로 제약하고 있는 동식물 검역조치가 중단기적으로 다수의 품목을 대상으로 동시에 해제될 가능성이 매우 적기 때문이다. 이 연구 보고서는 한·중 양국의 농산물 교역패턴과 경쟁력, 소비자인식, 동식물 검역장벽 등 한·중 간 농산물 교역구조에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 종합적으로 검토하여 향후 교역구조의 변화를 전망하고 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다.

Based on the analysis of agricultural trade pattern between Korea and China in the context of competition or complementary cooperation, this study synthesizes several factors affecting their agricultural trade structure, gives a comprehensive outlook on structural changes in agricultural trade between the two countries, and finds some implications for Korean agriculture. Agricultural trade between Korea and China shows a clear one-way trade from China to Korea and consists mainly of inter-industry trade. The products available to intra-industry trade are rare with the exception of several processed foods. This overwhelmingly unbalanced trade structure makes it difficult for two countries to avoid severe competition and build mutually beneficial cooperative relationship in agricultural sector, and is not expected to change in the near future. The implications from our analyses on relevant issues in agricultural trade structure between Korea and China are summarized as follows; First, agriculture in two countries has similar production structure and development course, but also has distinctive resource endowments and growth stages, which lead to current overwhelming one-way trade and leave not much room for complementary relation in the near future. It is necessary to find a constructive cooperation plans between the trading partners towards co-prosperity under the more liberalized trade in the future, focusing on the establishment of specialization system reflecting their comparative advantages in agricultural production. Second, the survey results reflect the change of consumer perceptions about chinese agricultural products toward more positive direction. Korean residents in China and restaurant managers, who have experienced chinese agricultural products more than general consumers, responded more positively about tastes, food safety, prices of chinese agricultural products and showed higher willingness to pay than general consumers did. It suggests that general consumers are likely to become more positive on chinese agricultural products if they have more opportunity of direct access to these products, implying potentiality of import increase of chinese agricultural products when the bilateral FTA is in effect. Third, the removal of inspection and quarantine barriers usually takes quite a long time, because the import prohibiton of a product on account of plant disease, pest, and animal disease is lifted through various risk assessment process having eight steps. Recently, however, exporting countries and international organizations are seeking to reduce the period of the risk assessment and to set a common standard. Bilateral quarantine negotiations are also affected by political and diplomatic situations and may accelerate the procedure. Fourth, Chinese government has adopted several policies for promoting disease-free agricultural production regions. Also, China is trying to introduces the concept of regionalization in its FTA negotiations, persuading their trade partners. Therefore, Korean government should prepare for the possible request of Chinese government on the issues in the forthcoming Korea-China FTA negotiation.

Researchers: Moon, Hanpil; Choi Sei-Kyun, Dae Hee Chung E-mail address: hanpil@krei.re.kr