밭농업 직불제의 생산유발 효과

Abstract

이 연구에서는 밭농업 직불제가 재배면적에 미치는 영향을 개략적으로 분석하였다. 밭농업은 많은 품목을 재배하는 영세한 경영구조이므로 관련 통계가 잘 구축되어 있지 않다. 자료의 제약으로 정책효과를 정밀하게 분석하는 데에 한계가 있다.

밭농업 직불제 대상인 맥류, 잡곡류, 두류, 마늘, 참깨, 땅콩, 고추, 사료작물의 2011년 재배면적은 21만 5,330ha 정도이다. 류별 또는 품목별 재배면적 함수를 추정한 결과 해당 폼목의 가격이 상승하면 재배면적이 늘어나고, 생산대체 가능 품목의 가격이 상승하면 해당 품목의 재배면적은 줄어드는 유의한 결과를 얻었다. 이 추정식을 활용하여 직불제가 재배면적에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과 1.0% 정도의 증산효과가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 농가당 밭작물 재배면적이 영세하고 작부체계가 섬세하다는 점을 고려하면 밭농업 직불제로 인한 재배면적 증가 효과는 분석결과보다 적을 수 있다고 판단된다.

As agricultural environments are expected to change rapidly in the short and long term, several complementary policies are adopted for the Korea-US FTA. One of the policies is to establish a direct payment for upland crops. The goal of this study is to estimate the production inducement effects of a direct payment for upland crops that will be implemented beginning in 2012. The direct payment is limited to farm households that produce 19 specific upland crops. Therefore, it is expected that the cultivation area of the 19 crops will expand and the supply and demand will be unbalanced. If the level of production of specific crops increases, the price is expected to decrease, which might result in having smaller income effects. To review and estimate these effects of the policy, we analyze the production inducement effects of the direct payment for 19 upland crops. In chapter 2, we review the current status of upland farming and introduce the direct payment for upland crops. In chapter 3, we examine how the new policy would affect production. We use data from KOSIS 1990-2011 on farming areas of each region, prices of crops, and input prices. In the first step, we estimate the relationship between farming areas and prices. In the second step, we examine how the increased income by the direct payment would be converted to higher prices. Using the results in the first step, it is calculated that the direct payment would amount to 400 thousand won. The result also shows that the farming area of 18 upland crops will increase by 2,800 hectares, which is 1.4% of the total cultivation area of the 18 crops in 2011.

Researchers: Dong-Gyu Park, Tae-hun Kim, Mee-bok Kim, Chang-ho Kim Research period: 2012. 5. - 2012. 7. E-mail address: dkpark@krei.re.kr