해외곡물시장정보시스템 운영사업 : 국제곡물시장 분석과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축 및 운영(1/3년차)

Abstract

2012년 7월 이후 우리나라는 국제 곡물가격이 또 다시 상승하면서 곡물수입에 더 많은 비용을 지불해야 하고, 곡물가격의 변동성이 확대됨에 따라 보다 큰 가격위험에 직면하게 되었다. 이에 대한 대응방안의 하나로서 단편적이고 2차적인 정보에 의존하고 있던 기존의 해외곡물시장의 정보시스템을 대신해 체계적이고 능동적인 정보시스템 구축의 필요성이 대두되었다.

이에 따라 2011년 「해외곡물시장 동향과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축방안」 연구를 통해 기본 수급 정보시스템을 먼저 구축하고 보다 상세한 시장 정보를 단계적으로 추가·보완하는 구축방안을 제시한 바 있다. 이 연구는 먼저 그간 노력의 결과물로서 올해부터 새롭게 구축·운영하기 시작한 「해외곡물시장정보시스템」을 소개하고 있다. 세계 및 각국 곡물시장의 기본 정보를 체계적으로 제공하고 「세계곡물 수급 전망」을 통해 시의성 있고 독자적인 분석과 전망 정보를 제공하고 있다는 점에서 보다 체계적이고 능동적인 정보제공의 기반이 마련되었다고 할 수 있다.

Background of Research The world grain price has surged several times in the 20th century and its volatility, too, has spiked since 2007, exerting inescapable influence on Korea, a country that relies on imports for most of its needs for wheat, corn and soybeans. The domestic price would therefore inevitably rise in case the world grain price rises. As a countermeasure to the surge and increased volatility of world grain price, it is necessary to build a systematic and proactive information system to replace the previous world grain market information system that relies on fragmentary and secondary information. So far, the ability to collect and combine world grain market information has been low and due to the incompleteness of the information system, even collected data could not be provided systematically and rapidly. Moreover, there was no market forecasting system that could systematically analyze overseas grain market information and provide the future market outlook to the government and related organizations. This study thus introduces the 「World Grain Market Information System」which was established and has been operating since the start of this year.

Method of Research In chapter 2, the establishment of the world grain market information system and the database status are explained. In chapter 3, the features and operation conditions of the world grain market information system are introduced. In chapter 4, a utilization method is suggested to expand and complete the established information system. A method to expand the market information system of major countries is suggested per commodity and the necessity of monitoring and forecasting the world grain market based on the world grain market information system is explained.

Research Results and Implications The world grain market information system provides information on the basic supply and demand as well as price of grains in the world market through ｢World Grain Price Trend｣ and ｢The Trend and Outlook of World Grain Demand and Supply｣. In particular, starting from July 25, 2012, original and proactive analyses and timely outlook information have been provided every month through ｢World Grain Demand and Supply Outlook｣ of KREI-World Grain Outlook System. The world grain outlook system consists of an overseas monitoring system and an international demand and supply outlook model. It analyzes and provides trend and outlook data related to international demand and supply of the three commodities of wheat, corn and soybeans and their impact on domestic price. Ample information on issues surrounding the world grain market is provided rapidly and accurately, such as information related to world crop situation, daily commentary on futures market, data related to international macroeconomic indexes concerning world economy growth rate, currency exchange rate, transportation fare, and international crude oil market, data concerning international grain outlook reports, and latest news on overseas grain market which is updated daily through ｢World Grain Information｣. In order to rapidly provide users with 「World Grain Market Information System」 which was established and has been operating since the start of this year, an internet website (http://grains.krei.re.kr/) was opened. Therefore, it is fair to say that with the establishment and operation of 「World Grain Market Information System」, we overcame the previous limitation of fragmentary and passive information collection and laid a foundation that can support not only the reasonable decision-making by end users and people in the industries of importing, processing, and marketing agricultural commodities but also the use of the information as a basic data for managing price and stabilizing the supply and demand of food.

Researchers: Suk-Ho Han, Keun-Soo Han, Jun-ho Seung, Na-kyung Kwon, In-Ae Shin Research Period: 2012. 1～2012. 12 E-mail address: shohan@krei.re.kr