농자재산업의 산업연관분석과 가격변화 영향

Abstract

농자재산업은 하나의 독립적인 산업으로서 의미도 있지만, 농업의 발전을 지원하는 필수 기간산업으로서 미래 농업발전의 필요충분조건을 제공하는 산업이라는 측면에서 보다 중요한 의미가 있다. 또한 농자재산업은 농업노동의 생산성을 향상시키는 데 결정적인 역할을 수행해 왔으며, 실제 농업발전의 핵심적인 기술도입과 활용의 대상이 바로 농자재산업이었다.

농자재산업이 농업부문의 발전을 위한 중요한 산업임에도 불구하고 그동안 정책의 우선순위에서 뒤로 밀려나 있었으며, 농자재산업과 농업부문이 어떤 연계 구조를 가지고 있는지, 농자재산업이 전·후방으로 어떻게 연결되어 있는지에 대한 연구도 찾기 어려운 실정이다. 더욱이 농자재산업은 국제 원유 등의 가격변화에 민감히 반응하고, 이는 곧 농업에도 영향을 미치게 되지만 이에 대한 체계적인 연구도 부족하다.

이에 따라 이 연구는 농자재산업과 농업부문과의 전·후방 연계 구조를 파악하고, 농자재의 비용과 국제 원유 등의 가격변화가 농자재산업과 농업부문에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 분석하여 농자재산업의 중요성을 입증하고자 수행되었다.

Background of Research This study used an input-output analysis model to analyze front and rear correlations of agro-material industry and agriculture sector, and industrial correlations of agro-material industry and agriculture sector were mathematically measured.

Method of Research In this study we examined the level of influence of the cost changes in agro-material industry and increase in international crude oil price and domestic petroleum products prices to see how much they affected the costs of agro-material industry, agriculture sector and other industries including agriculture. From the analysis conducted focusing on production inducement model, the following results were obtained.

Research Results and Implications The result of front production inducement coefficient taking agro-material industry as a center revealed that in most cases the remaining agro-material industry except fertilizer industry did not use the products from agriculture as intermediary goods. The result of analysis carried out based on the assumption that demand for 100 million won was increased using exogenous variable of agro-material industry sector revealed that the influence of nitrogen compound to production increase of its own sector and other industry sectors was the biggest among agro-material industry. A secondary analysis of demand-not-served effect was attempted using a supply side model. The result of analysis revealed that nitrogen compound of the agro-material industry has the biggest influence on the whole industry including agriculture and food and beverage industry and that the decrease in supply of nitrogen compound equivalent to 100 million won would cause decrease in production by 95 million won throughout overall industry. Out of added value items, the ripple effect of the changes in manpower cost to the prices of the products of its own sector was measured. The result of analysis revealed that seed and seedling sectors were most significantly affected by the changes in its own sector's employee compensation while the sector which was affected least was agricultural pesticides sector. Next to feed industry, fertilizer, nitrogen compound, agricultural pesticides, agricultural machines, seed and seedlings were high in order of influence. In this thesis, we also attempted to analyze the influence of the price increase of domestic petroleum products and imported crude oil to whole domestic industry including agro-material industry. In case domestic petroleum product(fuel oil) price increases by 10%, the product which is affected the most in agro-material industry is nitrogen compound resulting in a price increase of 6.37%. Following nitrogen compound were fertilizer(increase by 0.54%), agricultural machinery, seed and seedling, agricultural pesticides and feed in order of price increase.

Researchers: Hyun-Tae Park E-mail address: htpark@krei.re.kr