기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향분석과 대응방안

Abstract

국내외 기후변화 전문기관에 따르면 지구 평균기온은 지속적으로 상승할 것으로 예측되고 있어 기후변화가 글로벌 핵심 어젠다로 다루어지고 있다. 기후변화는 식량공급 부문에 긍정적인 측면도 있으나 부정적인 측면이 매우 강한 것으로 보고되고 있다. 우리나라도 미래의 기후변화가 가속화될 것으로 전망되는 가운데 국내 농업분야 기후변화 연구는 생산에 미치는 영향분석 및 그에 따른 대응에 제한되어 있고, 기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향과 대응전략 제시는 상당히 미흡한 실정이다. 기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향에 대한 체계적인 분석과 안정적 식량공급체계 구축방안 제시는 식량자급률이 낮은 우리나라의 미래 식량공급 정책 수립에 중요한 정보를 제공하게 된다.

이 보고서는 「기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향분석과 대응방안」에 관한 연구원 기본과제의 최종 결과물이다. 여기서는 국내외 기후변화와 관련하여 국내 식량생산 잠재력 진단, 식량공급에 미치는 영향분석, 국제기구의 논의동향과 주요국의 대응사례, 기후변화에 대응한 안정적 식량공급체계 구축방안 등을 제시하였다. 특히 안정적인 식량공급체계 구축을 위해 국내생산능력, 완충능력, 해외수입능력, 정책대응능력 등 네 가지 측면에서 구체적인 실천과제를 제시하여 보았다.

Background of Research Climate change caused by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global temperature, has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korea’s and overseas agencies specialized in climate predict that the average global temperature will continue to rise. While climate change has a positive impact on the food sector, significantly negative impacts are dominant. In this context, this study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system to respond to climate change.

Method of Research In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, various analytical models were used, for example, a response analysis based on the questionnaire for farmers, an analysis of causes of pests and diseases in rice production by using the panel data, an analysis of extreme weather impacts by using the panel analysis-random effects model, and an analysis of food supply effects by using an integrated model in which the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model is connected to the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO).

Research Results and Implications An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO to reveal reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, to result in rice reduction by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and soybean reduction by 21.2%p and barley reduction by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that self-sufficiency ratio of rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity, the import capacity from other countries, and the policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing the infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving the buffering capacity are suggested by improving resilience and bio-diversity, building a risk management system, and further storing up food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are suggested by constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with involved countries. Finally, key tasks for improving the policy performance capacity are suggested by refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model to policies, expanding investments in research and development and building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing climate change centers.

Researchers: Chang-Gil Kim, Hak-Kyun Jeong, Suk-Ho Han, Jeong-Seung Kim, and Dong-Hyun Moon Research Period: 2012. 1 ～ 2012. 12