북한의 농업부문 개혁조치 분석과 전망 (1996∼2012)

Abstract

이 연구는 북한의 여러 경제개혁조치 중에서 농업부문에 공통적으로 영향을 끼치거나, 농업부문에 주로 해당되는 개혁조치에 대해 정리하고 분석하고자 했다. 분석 방법은 다음 세 단계로 수행했다. 첫째, 각 농업개혁조치의 내용을 분석했다. 이는 해당 정책 및 조치사항에 관한 문건, 법령, 기사, 문헌 등을 참고해 정리했다. 둘째, 북한의 경제 및 농업 상황을 고려해 개혁적 조치의 기대효과를 논리적으로 추론하고자 했다. 셋째, 가능한 범위 내에서 각 농업개혁조치의 효과를 분석했다. 이는 농업생산 및 후속되는 정책의 변화를 통해 기대효과가 현실화되고 있는지를 분석함으로써 이루어졌다.

Background of Research Since the late 1980’s, the economy of North Korea has been in serious recession after the collapse of the socialist economic bloc. The agricultural productivity and food supply gradually decreased. The agricultural productivity of North Korea recorded the worst in the mid/late 1990’s after the death of Premier Il-Sung Kim. Ever since then, the chronic food shortage in North Korea has been continued and North Korea has needed support from the international society every year. After the seizure of power by Jung-Il Kim, the country initiated agricultural reformation with new agricultural policies from the late 1990’s. However, the outcome for agricultural productivity was not notably successful. The food shortage continues to the era of Jung-Eun Kim after the death of Jung-Il Kim. This implies insufficient reformation in the agriculture sector. In order to identify the relevant grounds, the reform measures on the agriculture of North Korea are needed to be reviewed.

Method of Research This study is to address the reform measures that commonly affect the agriculture sector or are directly relevant towards agriculture among many other economic reform measures in North Korea, and to arrange and analyze them. The analysis was conducted in the following 3 stages. First, the contents of each agricultural reform measure were analyzed by referring to and arranging documents, regulations, articles, and literatures relevant to the policies and the measures. Second, the expected effects of the reform measures are logically inferred considering the situation of economy and agriculture of North Korea. Third, the impact of each agricultural reform measure is analyzed as much as possible by analyzing whether the expected effects are realized through changes in agricultural production and follow-up policies.

Research Results and Implications The very first system reform experiment for North Korea's agriculture after the food shortage was the “new group management system in 1996”. The core implication of this system was to trigger the motives for agricultural production. However, the expected effect of increased production was not accomplished in 2∼3 years after the execution resulting in failure to adopt the actual full-scale system. North Korea carried out “improvement measures for economy management (referred to as the 7·1 measure)” in 2002. This measure was expected to cause motives for production in the agricultural sector by realizing the relevant prices, and to be a factor to expand productivity. However, it is evaluated that the agriculture production could not be increased since the price increase in agricultural products did not exceed the production input costs, and the production input did not increase in the relevant sector, and no dramatic changes in technologies were made. The induction of foreign capital was made by agriculture support of the international community and South Korea. The agriculture support of the international community and South Korea has contributed to improvement of North Korea’s humanitarian situation and the increase of agriculture production in the short term. However, it did not distinctly improve the reproduction system of North Korea’s agriculture. It is evaluated that the reasons for the foregoing are the limitation of the support and low level of reform and market-opening policy. In the era of Jung-Eun Kim, the country is experimenting agricultural reform measures being represented by “6·28 policy”. Many experts indicate cautious attitudes on this reform policy stating that it would not be special in its effects. From the late 1990’s to recent years, North Korea has sought for changes in the agriculture sector including implementation of new agricultural policies, improvement of system, and attraction of agricultural support. However, North Korea’s agriculture has failed to escape from ‘reform failures and insufficient capital.’ In order to overcome this situation, North Korea’s internal reform drive and raising large-scale capital from the outside need to happen at the same time. But this would be a very difficult task without a dramatic change since North Korea views a reformation as a factor to threaten its political system whereas the international community pays attention to low return on investment. It is expected that the limitation of North Korea’s agricultural reform measures as well as what is primarily needed for revival and development of agriculture can be identified by this study.

Researchers: Young-Hoon Kim, Tae-Jin Kwon, Su-Kyoung Lim Research Period: 2013. 1～2013. 10 E-mail address: kyhoon@krei.re.kr