임산물 수급모형 구축 및 전망

Abstract

우리나라 국토면적의 약 64%를 차지하는 산림은, 목재뿐만 아니라 밤, 표고버섯, 산나물 등 다양한 임산물의 공급처이다. 최근 들어 산림의 다양한 공익적 기능이 알려지면서 보존을 위한 노력이 활발히 진행되고 있다. 그러나 산림은 고갈되는 것이 아니라 순환하는 자원이므로 계획에 따라 효율적으로 이용하는 것이 환경보호 및 자원관리 측면에서도 매우 중요하다. 산림을 구성하는 나무는 생육기간이 길고 장기간에 걸쳐 환경·경제적으로 영향을 나타내기 때문에 조림 단계에서부터 신중하게 계획하여야 한다. 그러나 산림자원 부국들의 자원 무기화로 인한 원목 수입의 제한, 시장개방으로 인한 목제품 및 단기소득임산물 수입확대 등은 우리의 효율적인 산림이용을 어렵게 만드는 요소이며, 계획수립에도 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다.

이 연구는 산림을 둘러싼 대내외적인 환경의 변화를 반영하여 목재공급 및 목제품·단기소득임산물 시장을 예측하는 모형을 수립하는 연구이다. 동태적으로 변화하는 자원 재고를 감안한 목재 공급가능성과 시장 상황에 따라 결정되는 목제품의 수요량을 연결하여 국내산 원목의 예상되는 자급률을 제시하였다. 또한 단기소득임산물의 시장상황에 따른 생산량, 수입량, 소비량 등을 예측하여 제시하였다.

Many changes in forests are expected to occur at regional and global level. It is necessary to analyze and estimate impacts quantitatively on forestry industries as a part of the national economy in order to set up policies preparing for future challenges which will be caused by diverse changes in internal-external environment. For the sustainable forest management, establishing a systematical model is essential. This study is aimed at developing a supply and demand structure of timber and byproducts taking into account the factors such as market conditions. Also, this study will provide basic directions for planning the forest resource management schemes and the effective use of forest resources. The supply-demand structure model for forest products is largely divided into three parts. The first part is about the timber supply, the second part is the wood product market, and the third is the byproduct market. In the first part the study examines the structure of age classes of forest in the long term and the possibility of domestic timber supply on the basis of the governmental forest plans. Timber supply is assumed to come from the timber harvest, species regeneration, logging in damaged areas, and thinning. To estimate the dynamic changes in areas by age classes, Cohort correlation developed in 2008 was applied. The supply-demand model for the wood product market is composed of main products including sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fibreboard(MDF), and pulp. Functions such as supply, import demand, and demand were estimated for each product to establish the model. For the forest byproduct market, analyzed items are chestnuts, astringent persimmons, jujubes, oak mushrooms, and wild edible greens. The absence of time series data for cultivation areas led to the usage of producer price and production input price for the estimation of supply function as a general function type. Thus, this is a long-run model which is not limited by cultivation areas. The result of analysis of timber supply in the model will shows that the age class 6 which was only 7.7% of the entire forest practice area in 2010 will dramatically increase. Accordingly, it will increase to around 73% of the whole forest practice area by 2100. In the timber supply, timber harvest is expected to account for 93~95% in the timber production. For the wood products, the domestic supply and import of sawnwood, plywood, and fibreboard made of roundwood are expected to decline. The reason for this decrease is from the prediction of the increase in international and domestic prices for raw materials due to environment protection and the weaponization of resources. The total supply of particle board made of recycling wastewood and pulp made of wood chips will increase. As a result of a comparison between the outlook of products supply in the product market and the outlook of the domestic timber supply, possible domestic timber supply is only 2,130,000㎥ of roundwood and the self-sufficiency will be merely about 15% in 2015. Self-sufficiency, however, will increase to around 83% by 2050. The result of supply-demand analysis for the forest byproducts shows that the domestic supply of astringent persimmons will increase, while the import will decrease. Likewise, the domestic supply of wild edible greens will increase and the import will decrease. Also in the case of oak mushrooms, domestic supply will grow, dropping imports.

Researchers: Sang-Min Lee, Kyung-Duk Kim, and Seong-Hwan Song E-mail address: smlee@krei.re.kr