농가경영안정지원제도 운영 실태와 정책과제 (1/2차연도)

Abstract

농산물의 소비는 정체현상을 보이는 반면, 영농 기술의 발전에 따른 생산성 향상과 수입농산물의 증가로 농산물 공급이 늘어나면서 농업수익성이 하락하고 있다. 또한 농업경영비의 지속적인 상승으로 소득률이 하락하고, 자연재해의 대규모화·광역화로 농업경영위험이 확대되고 있다.

본 연구는 농업경영안정지원제도의 실태 분석과 정책과제를 제시하기 위하여 추진되었으며, 1/2년차 연구에서는 농업경영안정지원제도의 개편방향을 제시하고, 2/2년차 연구에서 세부 정책 프로그램을 제시하고자 한다.

이번 연구에서는 첫째, 농업소득 실태, 가격변동 및 불안정성 실태, 소득률 변화 실태 그리고 농업경영위험 요인 분해분석 등을 실시하여 농업경영위험의 실상과 그 원인을 품목별 및 영농형태별로 분석한 후 시사점을 제시하였다. 둘째, 현재 운용되고 있는 농업경영안정지원제도에 대한 성과평가를 실시하고, 현행 지원제도의 성과와 개선과제를 제시하였다. 셋째, 농업경영위험 실태와 현행 관련 제도의 개선과제를 기초로 농업경영안정화를 위한 관련 제도의 개편방향을 제시하였다.

Farm Management Risks and Implications This study conducts in-depth analyses of agricultural income level and variability, price volatilities, and case studies on sharp price change to shed light on the current status of farm management risks. An increased volatility in agricultural income along with continuous decrements in income level and income rate (ratio of agricultural income and gross agricultural revenue) imply that the farm management risks have increased. An empirical analysis of commodity price changes underpins the increments in price volatility which are expected to exacerbate the farm management conditions. This phenomenon is especially conspicuous among major commodities such as pepper, garlic, and onion. The increased price instabilization may be attributed to an increment in quantities supplied by domestic production and imports, stagnated domestic demand, and potential presence of price ceiling. An analysis of price transmission through distribution channels points out that producers, among all the relevant participants, are most vulnerable to such price changes. Case studies on exceptional price changes over the past twenty years show that unanticipated shocks, for example, natural disasters and/or disease, can be major causes. It is also shown that the agricultural income rate has continuously lowered to reflect farm management risk expansion. The reason for the decreasing income rate varies by commodity. For example, stable prices along with increased production costs lead rice producers to face with such hardships. Increased management risks faced by some fruit and vegetable producers can be accounted for price or yield variations rather than production costs. Put together, the current situations emphasize the necessity for introduction or modification of farm management schemes to address such risks embedded in farm management.

Suggestions for Management Program Revision Based on earlier analyses and discussion, this study presents directions toward which current policy tools may be guided. First, policy priority needs to be placed on reducing farm management risks rather than balancing supply-demand in markets. Second, policy tools should be classified and elaborated to cope with a variety of risk types. Third, it is required to enhance cost-effectiveness and efficiency of budget. Fourth, a careful review on current tools and provision is needed not to violate the WTO rules. Fifth, agricultural futures and other alternatives could be introduced to hedge the management risks. This study’s suggestions regarding policy scheme modification are as follows. First, the current Direct Payment Scheme needs to be revised to better mitigate the shocks from rapid price changes. Second, additional tools against catastrophic disasters are necessary as a basic safety net. Third, it is worthwhile to consider including production cost components in the Direct Payment Scheme formula so that the Payment can absorb the ‘cost pressures’. Fourth, more detailed studies are required as to farm-level income stabilization instruments.

Future Works This study is scheduled to be conducted over two years. In the second year, this study will focus on the following: 1) how to revise current schemes and introduce crop･farm-specific tools; 2) how to further develop some major programs including the Direct Payment Scheme; and 3) evaluating appropriateness of introducing new programs.

Researchers: Park Joon-kee; Kim Tae-gon; Rhew Chan-hee; Kim Young-june; Jeon Ji-yeon Research Period: 2014. 1.~2014. 12. E-mail address: jkpark@krei.re.kr