농업분야 국가 온실가스 장기 감축목표 설정 연구

Abstract

기후변화는 지구온도의 평균적인 증가를 의미하며, 미래 사회의 변화를 주도할 메가트렌드이다. 제19차 유엔기후변화협약 당사국총회에서 모든 국가가 온실가스 감축에 참여하는 신기후체제 마련을 위해 2015년까지 2020년 이후 국가별 온실가스 감축목표 및 달성방안 등을 제출하기로 합의함에 따라 우리나라는 국가 온실가스 장기 감축목표 설정작업을 추진하게 되었다. 농업분야에서도 장기 감축목표를 설정하고 감축목표를 달성하기 위한 비용효과적인 온실가스 감축방안 도출이 필요해졌다.

이 보고서는 「농업분야 국가 온실가스 장기 감축목표 설정 연구」에 관한 정책과제의 최종결과물이다. 농업분야 온실가스 배출 현황을 살펴보고, 2050년까지의 예상배출량을 제시하였으며, 2030년까지의 온실가스 감축잠재량을 분석하였다. 그리고 감축기술의 현장 적용가능성 및 비용효과성 평가 결과와 한계감축비용분석 결과를 제시하였다. 마지막으로 온실가스 감축기술의 보급 확대, 온실가스 감축기술 개발 전략, 배출권거래시장을 이용한 탄소거래형 감축사업 추진 등 농업부문의 온실가스 감축을 위한 실천전략을 제시하였다.

Climate change means average increases in the Earth’s temperature and is a megatrend that will lead future social changes. To cope with environmental changes owing to climate change, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction became a global agenda, and the world is mandating GHG cuts through international agreements. At the 19th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it was agreed that by 2015 all countries would submit national GHG reduction goals from 2020 and achievement plans to embark on a new climate change regime. Accordingly, Korea began to set up long-term national GHG reduction goals. With regard to it, this study aims to establish long-range emission cut goals for the agricultural sector and to seek for cost-effective reduction plans for attaining them. To achieve the purpose of this research, we reviewed the domestic and foreign literature on the agricultural sector’s GHG emission reduction potential and GHG emissions projections, and estimated log-linear functions for the outlook for activity data. To evaluate expected GHG emissions and reduction potential, we carried out a joint study with agronomy and livestock experts. We also estimated marginal abatement costs of GHG mitigation technology in agriculture, and conducted a field survey to examine major countries’ GHG reduction policies. Moreover, we pushed ahead with experts’ and policymakers’ assessment of mitigation technology’s field applicability and cost-effectiveness. The non-energy sectors’ GHG emission was forecast to decrease from 21.963 million tons in 2010 to 21.122 million tons in 2020 and to 19.661 million tons in 2050. The agricultural sector’s GHG reduction potential was estimated to be 1,087~1,648 tons in 2020 and 2,221~3,376 tons in 2030. The factors affecting farms’ decision-making on adopting GHG mitigation technology included “the government’s support for the technology” (49.4%) and “future increases in demand for low-carbon agricultural products” (26.9%). The farms were having difficulties due to “initial high-cost investment” (33.3%), “no price differentiation” (30.8%), “lack of trust in successful technology adoption” (30.8%), and so on. According to the result of estimating marginal abatement costs of the agricultural sector’s GHG reduction technology, no-tillage, geothermal heat pumps, and multilayer thermal screens were cost-effective. Japan has consumption policies including “CO2 labeling” and “local production for local consumption” and a production policy, “direct support subsidies for environment preservation agriculture.” The UK is pushing ahead with biomass strategies such as promoting anaerobic digestion and supporting subsidies for bioenergy. To accomplish the agricultural sector’s GHG reduction goals, it is needed to continuously expand major GHG mitigation projects including water management in paddies and diffusion of multilayer thermal screens. In addition, direct support for research facilities is necessary to develop various GHG reduction technologies, and an environment should be set up so that private companies can invest in R&D. To encourage farmers’ participation in GHG cuts, it is required to carry out a carbon trading-type reduction project using the emission trading market and to adopt a direct payment system for low- carbon agriculture through menu methods. Furthermore, it is needed to promote low-carbon agricultural and livestock product consumption and to build a reliable activity database.

Researchers: Hak-Kyun Jeong, Chang-Gil Kim Research period: 2014. 5. - 2015. 3. E-mail address: hak8247@krei.re.kr