한·영연방 FTA에 따른 축산업 대책 연구

Abstract

2013년 12월 5일 한·호주 FTA 타결을 비롯하여 2014년 3월 한·캐나다 FTA가 타결되었으며, 한·뉴질랜드 FTA 또한 조만간 타결될 것으로 예상된다. 호주, 캐나다, 뉴질랜드 등 영연방 3개국들은 축산업이 발달하였기 때문에 한·영연방 3개국 FTA 추진은 국내 축산업에 적지 않은 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다.

2013년 우리나라 쇠고기 수입량 25만 7,000톤 중 56%가 호주산 쇠고기이다. 호주는 국내 수입쇠고기 시장에서 이미 최대 수출국이며, 뉴질랜드는 우유 생산량의 98%를 치즈와 버터 등으로 가공하여 수출하고 있어 국제시장에서 미국·EU와 대등한 유제품 수출국으로 분류되고 있다. 캐나다로부터 돼지고기 수입도 국내 총수입량의 5.6%를 차지하고 있어 무시할 수 없는 상황이다.

따라서 한·영연방 FTA의 추진에 따른 축산업의 추가적인 피해가 예상되기 때문에 기존 FTA 국내대책에 대한 검토와 함께 다양한 의견을 수렴한 축산부문의 추가적인 보완대책 수립에 대한 요구가 증가하고 있다.

이 연구는 한·영연방 FTA 추진이 국내 축산업에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고, 그동안 추진되어 온 축산업 관련 FTA 대책에 대한 평가를 토대로 축산업 보완대책을 마련할 목적으로 수행되었다. 이를 위해 영연방 3개국의 축산업 현황을 파악하여 우리나라와 비교분석을 실시하고, 국내 축산 관련 단체의 의견수렴과 전문가 토론을 통해 축산업 보완대책을 마련하고자 하였다.

Following a Korea-Australia FTA and a Korea-Canada FTA, Korea is expected to sign an FTA with New Zealand soon. As those three British Commonwealth countries have the advanced livestock industry, signing of FTAs with these countries will have a major impact on the livestock industry in Korea. The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of the Korea-British Commonwealth FTA on the livestock industry in Korea and review the existing measures to FTAs in order to correct or complement the measures related to the livestock industry.

The Korea-British Commonwealth FTA is expected to affect the beef and pork markets in Korea and also the dairy market to some degree. Australia and New Zealand have cow population that is around 10 times and 3 times that of Korea, respectively, and their production cost is only half of Korea's. In 2013, the market share of Australian and New Zealand beef in the import beef market in Korea is 55.6% and 8.7%, respectively. When the Korea-British Commonwealth FTA is implemented, Australian and New Zealand beef is likely to gain the market share competing with US beef.

Although the hog population in Canada is only 1.3 times Korea's, the country exports 68% of pork meat and thus has a great export potential. Since 2011, the market share of Canadian pork meat in Korea’s import market has continually decreased to reach 5.6% in 2013. However, the market share is likely to increase again when the FTA is implemented.

The milk cow population in New Zealand and Australia is 12 times and 4 times Korea's, respectively. New Zealand particularly exports 98% of milk production processed into cheese, butter, etc. and is categorized as the dairy product exporting country in the level of the US and EU in the international markets. The Korea-British Commonwealth FTA is expected to affect the cheese and butter markets in Korea.

To estimate the ripple effect of the FTA, the estimate according to the existing results of FTA negotiations was set as the baseline, and the additional effect was analyzed by assuming that the Korea-Australia FTA and Korea-Canada FTA would take effect in January 2015 and the Korea-New Zealand FTA would take effect in January 2016. Application of the result of bilateral concession for Australia and Canada and analysis of the expected agreement for New Zealand indicated that the total average livestock production in 2015~2029 was expected to decrease by around 0.8~0.9% compared to baseline. In terms of each item, production of Korean beef is expected to decrease by 2.1%, pork meat by 0.6% and dairy products by 1.3~2.6%.

To minimize the damage to the livestock industry by implementation of the FTA with the British Commonwealth, this study intended to correct or complement the existing countermeasures to FTAs in Korea. Suggestions by farmers include differentiation of existing agricultural policy and FTA countermeasures, reduction of interest on collateral and loan, simplification of application procedure and strengthened PR of countermeasures. As for the improvement measures of each program, the ‘Assistance on Raw Milk for Processing’ program should subsidize 10% of production and set the dairy product processing quarter of a specific volume to improve the self-sufficiency and competitiveness of domestic dairy products. The FTA damage preservation direct payment program needs to increase the damage preservation rate from current 90% to 100% to be more effective.

For the new countermeasures to the Korea-British Commonwealth FTA, promotion of converting livestock as the sixth industry, strengthening of feed supply and assistance system's, cooperative type integration and strengthening of linking with regional product cooperatives, establishment of measures to expand the consumption base of livestock products and promotion of export of livestock products, and improvement of the livestock business environment and establishment of an income stabilization network need to be seriously reviewed.

Promotion of the sixth industry: Measures to utilize the processing, education and experiential functions of the farms, expansion of a foreign worker quota in the livestock industry, etc.

Strengthening of feed supply and assistance systems: Promotion of TMR feed production by farmers, strengthening of assistance systems, upward adjustment of the deemed purchase tax credit rate of the compound feed manufacturing business, etc.

Cooperative type integration and strengthening of linking with regional product cooperatives: Integration of livestock centered on cooperatives, development of production, processing, distribution bases of regional product cooperatives, conversion of local cooperative livestock farm into the production base for calves, and training of breeding specializing farmers, etc.

Establishment of measures to expand the consumption base of livestock products and promotion of export of livestock products: Improvement of how to supply milk and expansion of the free school lunch program, obligation to use domestic livestock products at schools and military bases, development of assistance programs specific for export, development of high value added heat treated products, development of the one-stop assistance system for export, etc.

Improvement of the livestock business environment and establishment of the income stabilization network: Introduction of import indemnity insurance, expansion of livestock casualty insurance, conversion of electricity billing rate of slaughter houses and processing facilities to be the same as agricultural usage, expansion of inheritance deduction in farming and deduction for family business inheritance, exemption of transfer income tax for livestock sites, etc.

Researchers: Jeong Minguk, Ji inbae, lee Byeonghun, Mun Hanpil, Nam Gyeongsu, Lee Changsu Research period: 2014. 4. 1. ~ 2014. 7. 30. E-mail address: mkjeong@krei.re.kr