한국농업의 미래성장을 위한 농업부문 투자 활성화 방안(1/2차년도)

Abstract

농산물 시장개방 확대의 영향 등으로 농업부문 성장이 정체되어 오고 있다. 한·중FTA 체결로 농산물 시장개방 일정이 확정된 시점에서 농업의 공익적 역할을 유지 확대하기 위해서는 농업성장이 지속적으로 이루어져야 할 것이다. 경제가 저성장 위기에 직면하고 있어 농업부문도 성장을 촉진하여 경제성장에 기여할 필요가 있다. 농업이 성장하여야 농가소득도 증가되고, 관련 산업의 발전도 가져오기 때문이다.

농업성장은 어떤 경로로 이루어져 왔는가를 보고, 향후 여건변화에 대응하여 성장경로는 어떤 것이어야 하는가를 파악하고자 하였다. 특히 생산기여도가 높은 자본투자 활성화가 이루어져야 할 것이다. 농업성장에서 자본의 역할은 중요하다. 자본은 고정자본 형성의 요인이고, 기술혁신의 투입재를 구입하는 기반이기 때문이다.

농업투자 활성화를 위해서는 먼저 농업성장의 요인은 무엇인가를 파악할 필요가 있다. 농업성장은 양적성장과 기술혁신에 의한 질적성장으로 구분된다. 농업자본은 양적성장과 질적성장에도 영향을 미치는 중요한 생산요소이다. 이러한 자본투자의 확대를 위해서는 농업생산주체의 구조 변화도 영향을 미친다. 또 사회경제, 기술변화, 환경적 요소들의 변화도 농업투자에 영향을 미치게 된다.

이 연구에서는 농업부문 성장촉진을 위해 투자 활성화 방안을 마련하기 위하여 먼저 농업부문 성장경로를 다각도로 분석하고자 하였다.

Background of Research Agriculture has functions for the public good, for example, stable food supply, retention and development of rural communities, and conservation of the environment and scenery. Agricultural growth is a key element for improving the value for the public good by agriculture. However, Korean agriculture is at risk in that gross agricultural production is sluggish because of the expansion of market opening, decrease in rural population, and aging agricultural labor forces. Although the Korean government continues to make an investment for building infrastructure for more agricultural production and agricultural growth, and strengthening international competitiveness, the recent real agricultural growth rate is lower than the growth rate of non-agricultural sectors, and the real agricultural income shows a tendency of decrease. For the period between 1995 and 2014, the real production growth rate of Korean agriculture shows an increase of 1.2% which is smaller than the growth rate of non-agricultural sectors, and the real agricultural income shows a decrease of 2.3%, implying sluggish agricultural growth. With respect to each sector in detail, real production of food crops is on the decrease; the real production of vegetables and fruits grown in open field is not on the increase; the real production of greenhouse vegetables and livestock farming shows an increase. While livestock farming and greenhouse vegetable cultivation with higher shares of capital investment contribute greatly to agricultural growth, the share of food crops and open field vegetable cultivation is on the decrease. This study aims to analyze the factors of agricultural growth, develop a strategy for developing agriculture adapted to future changes in agricultural conditions, and design political tasks for encouraging an investment in agriculture which is a key element for agricultural growth. This is for continued agricultural growth. This study examines changes in the factors of agricultural growth and changes in the agricultural structure and reviews resulting political tasks for the first year, and analyzes factors of the agricultural sector having an impact on the investment to suggest a strategy for encouraging an investment in the agricultural sector for the second year.

Method of Research In this study, three methods are applied. The first method is using statistical data about agriculture to analyze the TFP (Total Factor Productivity) of Korean agriculture. This is for estimating yields of rice, pulses, root and tuber crops, open-field vegetables, greenhouse vegetables, fruits, livestock, and livestock products, and inputs including land, fixed assets and labor input, examining changes in the TFP, and dividing the TFP into technical change factors and returns to scale factors to analyze the factors affecting TFP changes. The second method is carrying out Vector Autoregression analysis, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis in order to analyze the effect of fixed agricultural assets on agricultural growth. The third method is conducting a survey by questionnaire and an analysis thereof by the STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics) analysis method in order to get the idea about future changes in Korean agricultural conditions.

Research Results and Implications Although rice production is on the decrease and the growth rate of open field vegetables and fruits is sluggish, the livestock and greenhouse vegetable sectors are showing continuing production growth in the production sector of Korean agriculture since 2000. While land and labor inputs are on the decrease as input elements, fixed capital and intermediate material inputs show an increase. Agriculture is growing quantitatively, compensating for a decrease in land and labor inputs with more input of fixed assets and intermediate materials. Fixed asset and intermediate material inputs lead the growth of the greenhouse vegetable and livestock sectors for which it is easy to increase production thereof. For the period between 1980 and 2014, the TFP growth rate was 2% per annum on the average, but the growth rate per annum on the average has been 0.2% since 2011, implying a sudden decrease in the TFP growth rate. Decomposition of the TFP shows more shares of the technical change effect than the returns of scale effect. This is because the influence of technical change effect by technical development is relatively strong while the production improvement effect is lower by returns of scale in which the influence of more fixed investment is greater. In the fixed asset sector of agriculture, it is shown that the share of facilities, equipment or large animals is greater, and fixed assets have been actively formed since 2000. However, it is also shown that an investment in the fixed assets continues, but capital has not been formed efficiently in terms of other net investment than the decrease. In particular, net fixed capital formation has relatively great negative values around 2010. This is because the share of the capital decrease is great including depletion or a decrease in the number of large animals resulting from diseases in comparison with the formed fixed asset scale. The impulse response analysis with the VAR model shows that the influence of capital formation continues for period 1 which is shorter, implying that the formed fixed assets in the agricultural sector compensate for decreases which occur in the period. For the changes in the conditions of Korean agriculture and prospects thereof, a survey by questionnaire for economy and management experts was conducted to examine the scale and direction of effect of 26 factors currently affecting Korean agriculture on future agriculture. This aimed to look at the condition changes in Korean agriculture. In terms of sociology of population, it is considered that changes in the population structure, agricultural labor population decrease and aging agricultural labor forces may have a negative influence on the decrease in the demand for agricultural products, and the decrease in the agricultural production scale and productivity. However, it is considered that a positive influence on future agriculture will be based on the trend of demands for safer food, improved productivity and quality, and the strengthened certification system. In terms of technology, integration of state-of-the-art technology with agriculture and an increase in the demand for functional food and bio-materials are considered to have a great influence on future agriculture. It is considered that integration of state-of-the-art technology with agriculture, for example, smart farms, will have a positive influence on improving productivity, and an increase in the demand for bio-materials on creating a new demand for agricultural products. As described above, although an increase in land, labor and capital inputs contributed to growing Korean agriculture, recent qualitative growth by advanced technology has more positive influences on Korean agriculture. For maximizing the qualitative effect while sticking to quantitative growth, it is necessary to establish an effective and efficient investment strategy in agriculture. To this end, this study suggests the following political tasks. First, a positive and effective investment should be made in technology development and advanced facilities, rather than a passive investment to compensate for the capital decrease to continue agricultural growth of Korea adapted to changing conditions. Although Korean agriculture is developing through the high-quality stage based on better quality and capital investment in response to market opening, it is not yet in the knowledge-based and capital-intensive advanced production stage. An efficient capital investment is required to enter the advanced production stage highly competitive and productive on the basis of research, development and capital investment. Second, decrease in rural population and aging agricultural labor forces are factors having a negative impact on the investment for agricultural growth, and a solution is thus required to encourage more investments. Alternative regulations and policies are required for farm scale-up, support of prospective farmers, and efficient transfer of assets owned by retiring farmers. Supporting agricultural corporations can be an alternative for asset transfer or more investments, and it is thus necessary to improve related regulations. Third, an appropriate investment is required in technology development for entering new markets or creating new demands. Creating a new demand for agriculture and agricultural products is a very important factor for continuing growth. A political consideration is required for encouraging exporters adapted to international condition changes, for example, China’s economic growth, to find overseas markets, and creating new demands, for example, functional foods and bio-materials.

Researchers: Hwang Euisik, Kim Meebok, Gouk Seungyong and Choi Yejun Research period: 2016. 1. ~ 2016. 12. E-mail address: eshwang@krei.re.kr