미래 국토 전망과 농촌의 계획적 정비방안 연구(1/3차년도)

Abstract

우리나라는 산업화에 따른 압축성장의 시대를 지나 현재 저성장의 시대에 진입했다. 이와 더불어 가구 구조의 변화, 인구 감소, 고령화, 기후변화, 중국경제의 급부상, 다문화, 사회의 양극화, 4차 산업혁명, 삶의 질 중시 등 다양한 위협과 기회의 요소들로 이루어진 빠른 변화의 소용돌이 속에서 불확실한 미래로 항해하고 있다.

우리 농촌도 국토의 한 부분이기 때문에 미래로 향하는 거대한 변화의 조류를 피해갈 수는 없다. 하지만 우리의 농촌이 구체적으로 미래에 어떻게 변할 것인지에 대한 심도 깊은 논의는 국토나 도시 차원의 부문에 비해 턱없이 부족한 실정이다.

이 연구는 미래의 다양한 변화에 선제적으로 대응할 수 있는 계획적 정비 방안을 제시하여 살기 좋은 미래 농촌을 준비하는 기틀을 제시하고자 하는 3년차 중 1차년도 연구이다. 이 1차년도 연구에서는 미래 변화 동인을 파악하고, 2040년경 농촌의 변화상을 그려 내고, 예측가능한 문제점과 정책적 시사점을 도출하며 미래 농촌정책의 방향을 제시하고자 노력하였다.

Background & Purpose of Research In recent years, values of rural ares have been differently recognized among citizens and new lifestyles have vitalized rural areas in contrast with the past. Also, it is expected that a variety of socio-economic trends will influence rural futures. However, discussions on rural futures have not been sufficient to derive long-term strategies on rural areas, therefore it is needed to predict images of rural futures and draw policy implications from detailed and tailored future studies on rural areas. This three-year research project is designed to explore future issues and scenarios of rural areas in order to draw rural development strategies. In the first year study, the main research purposes are identifying issues highly relevant to rural futures and deducing directions of rural planning strategies to achieve desirable images of rural futures.

Methodology Statistical data has been analyzed in order to grasp trends of rural areas and national territory. Literature reviews and the mass media keyword analysis have been conducted to sort national future issues. The national future issues relevant to rural areas are identified through the first delphi survey, and the second delphi survey derives the specialized rural future issues by analyzing influence of the issues on rural areas from the perspectives of living places, working places, resting places and community places. Then, the public opinion survey is conducted to draw desirable images of rural futures.

Main Results and Implications It is identified that twelve national future issues are highly relevant to rural areas: ‘low birth rate and aging society’, ‘climate change and natural disaster’, ‘low growth and growth strategy’, ‘food security’, ‘4th industrial revolution’, ‘life insecurity of future generation’, ‘food safety’, ‘lifestyle stressing quality of life’, ‘threats to biodiversity’, inequality’, ‘multi-culture spread’ and ‘energy and resource shortage’. It is certain that a variety of problems and phenomena are expected to be caused by the issues, and these problems and phenomena are considered as the specialized rural future issues. The issues differently influence rural areas depending on their spatial characteristics. In addition, the desirable images of rural futures are drawn through the public opinion survey, and directions of rural development strategies are presented. ‘Convenient country life space for rural residents’, ‘working places for the youth’, ‘resting place for the public’ and ‘rural society led by local community’ are set as the desirable images. ‘Shrinking-Smart’ strategy is stressed to strengthen functions of rural centers and recycle idle properties in rural areas. Job opportunities can be created through rural tourism, renewable energy production and the high-tech industry for the youth. Agricultural heritages, rural cultures and natural landscapes have to be preserved to maintain recreational functions of rural areas. Special programs that aim to improve values of rural areas have to be implemented and specific landscape plans for rural areas should be established. Local communities have to be developed based on their social needs and interests. Superficial communities formed based on spatial units cannot lead their rural society anymore. Also, policy instruments that strengthen rural local communities’ capacity need to be implemented systematically.

Researchers: Sim Jaehun, Song Miryung, Sohn Hakgi, Seo Hongseok, Lee Junghae, Seo Hyeongjoo Research period: 2017. 1. ~ 2017. 12. E-mail address: jhsim@krei.re.kr