An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration for Korean Forest sector

Abstract

본 연구는 한국 산림에서 목재 수확과 탄소 저장 증가 두 가지 목적을 달성하기 위한 최적화 방안을 고찰하는 연구이다. 전쟁 후 고갈된 한국의 산림은 성공적으로 복구되었으며, 수십 년에 걸쳐 빠르게 성장하고 있다. 따라서 그동안 탄소 흡수량을 증진시키기 위한 구체적인 정책이 수행되지 않았음에도 불구하고 지상부 산림의 실질적인 증가가 나타나게 되었다. 지난 10년에 걸쳐 목재 수확량은 꾸준히 증가하고 있으나, 추후 많은 임분들이 성숙림에 도달함에 따라 수확 수준을 훨씬 더 높여야 함을 알 수 있다. 한 가지 해결되지 않은 질문으로는 탄소 흡수 프로그램이 존재하지 않을 때 수확 수준이 얼마나 빨리 증가할 것인가의 문제이다. 글로벌 목재모형은 수확 수준이 향후 10년에 걸쳐 현재보다 훨씬 더 높아져야 한다고 제안하고 있다.

This report evaluates two critical forest management issues and applies these results to the forests of the Republic of Korea. One issue concerns the optimal strategy for managing forests designated for timber management. We discuss alternative strategies that have been applied in forestry and recommend an updated dynamic version of the Faustmann model. The second issue that we address is how to incorporate carbon sequestration into a timber model. Again we review a few alternative approaches suggested in the literature. We recommend forest managers adopt a dynamic forest sequestration strategy that is consistent with the overall optimal control model of carbon mitigation in their country. Korea rapidly planted trees over a three decade period beginning in the 1970’s to recover lost tree cover during the Korean War. Many Korean forests are now approaching the age at which they should be harvested. Harvest rates in Korea should increase rapidly in the coming decades. Harvested lands should be immediately replanted to assure renewed future harvests. Forest sequestration should be motivated by the carbon price each decade. The carbon price will likely rise over time as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and marginal damage rises. By using the carbon price at each decade as the incentive to sequester carbon in forests, the carbon forest sequestration can be consistent with Korea’s overall carbon mitigation plan. As forest carbon is sequestered each year, forest owners should receive a rental payment for that carbon. Such a dynamic incentive will insure an efficient forest carbon sequestration program. At foreseeable carbon prices Korea should be able to sequester an additional 2.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide in Korean forests by 2140.