남북한 경협 재개 국면의 농업교류협력 구상과 추진 방안

Abstract

2018년과 2019년 연이은 남·북/북·미 정상회담에 따라 한반도 정세는 급격하게 변화하였으며 남북한 관계도 기로에 놓이게 되었다. 비록 현 상황에서는 여전히 북핵의 해소가 선결조건이겠으나, 대화를 통해 한반도 평화시대가 펼쳐질 수 있다면 그에 맞는 준비가 필요한 것은 자명하다.향후 정세를 긍정적으로 본다면 우리는 다음과 같은 상황이 펼쳐지리라고 기대할 수 있다. 남·북·미 3자 대화가 진전되면 국제사회는 대북 제재를 해소하기 시작할 것이다. 이와 함께 대북 경제협력이 재개될 수 있으며, 이는 북한의 호응과 전향적 변화를 배경으로 확대·심화될 것이다.향후 전개될 상황의 변화에 따라 단계별로 적합한 농업교류협력 프로그램을 준비해 추진할 필요가 있다. 특히, ‘대북 제재 해소’와 ‘북한의 개혁·개방 착수’가 남북 간 경제협력에 중요한 기점이 될 것이다. 이에 맞추어 농업분야 대북 교류협력을 준비해야 한다.이 연구는 이러한 필요성에 의해 수행되었다. 먼저 북한의 경제·농업 상황과 남·북·미 대화 상황을 정리·전망하였다. 또한 대북 제재가 해소되고 북한이 변화된다면 어떤 농업협력이 필요하며 어떻게 접근해야 하는지를 단계별로 정리해 보았다.

Research BackgroundThe political situation on the Korean Peninsula has dramatically changed since 2018. The US and North and South Korea agreed to take necessary actions in pursuit of their common goals—the denuclearization of North Korea and the establishment of peaceful relations. That also marked a turning point for the two Koreas. The political situation over the Korean Peninsula temporarily faces a deadlock. However, negotiations between the working-level staff of Pyeongyang and Washington have resumed. At the same time, the three countries are looking for an opportunity for talks, implying the potential for a positive prospect.If their talks make progress, the following outcomes are likely to follow. The global community would gradually lift sanctions on North Korea in phases, which may lead to the resumption of economic interactions and cooperation with the country. If North Korea shifts its attitude to be positive, economic interactions and cooperation between the country and the global community will get stronger. And if such changes ease the tension between the two Koreas, their cooperation in the agricultural sector will restart as well. In preparation for such a future, the agricultural sector should come up with proper measures.Research MethodologyThis study applied a wide range of methods, including literature reviews, the analysis of relevant laws, institutions and agreements, the review of previous cases of cooperation between North and South Korea in the agricultural sector, and the use of consultation provided by experts in North Korean agriculture and agricultural cooperation. In particular, the analysis of relevant laws, institutions and agreements focused on the current trend and issues related to economic and agricultural cooperation projects between the two Koreas. The current status of relevant laws and institutions, and the analysis of agricultural cooperation projects were conducted as part of agreements previously signed between Pyeongyang and Seoul. Previous cases of agricultural cooperation included agricultural support projects by private aid organizations, agricultural development cooperation projects for North Korea carried out by South Korean local governments, and similar projects by the global community. Also, we utilized consultation provided by experts on North Korea and unification in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, private aid organizations with experience in agricultural cooperation projects for North Korea, and experts with experience in negotiations with North Korea, as well as relevant research data and reports.FindingsPrograms for interactions and cooperation in the agricultural sector should be designed and implemented in phases, depending on how the situation would unfold. Major watersheds for economic and agricultural cooperation for North Korea are likely to be the lfiting of sanctions against North Korea, Pyeongyang’s effort for reform and opening, and its regime change. First, given the current situation that North and South Korea and the US have not reached a consensus, Pyeongyang and Seoul cannot actively initiate agricultural cooperation due to strict sanctions on North Korea. For the time being, it is desirable to carry out humanitarian aid first while waiting for favorable conditions to be in place for bilateral economic cooperation. The rearrangement and integration of agricultural cooperation projects that were previously commenced or agreed, as well as the establishment and institutionalization of food support programs for North Korea, can be another action that our agricultural sector should take now. Second, agricultural cooperation may resume when the global community withdraws sanctions against Pyeongyang. However, Pyeongyang’s capacity and conditions for international economic and agricultural cooperation are not likely to improve remarkably for a while. It is thus necessary to rearrange and commence agricultural cooperation projects that were previously conducted or agreed between the two Koreas. A development cooperation project for a joint farming complex and a pilot project for reforestation can also be appropriate for them to carry out in this period.Third, when international economic cooperation begins, and trust with other countries are getting to form, the North Korean government is likely to reform and open up the country. The direction of agricultural cooperation with North Korea should be shifted in this phase. If the market economy develops further and the capacity of economic players for managing the market economy improves with the reform and opening-up of North Korea, economic cooperation will serve as a driving force for the transformation and economic growth of the country. The agricultural sector should come up with proper measures for cooperation in advance.Since human interactions will happen more frequently in this phase, it will be possible to conduct projects for scientific and technological cooperation and knowledge and experience sharing in the agricultural sector, which have been emphasized by North Korea. A joint farming complex construction project recommended in the previous stage will serve as the foundation and basis for commercial exchange in this stage. If the joint farming complex boosts production, trade, contract-based cultivation, and investment helped by overseas agricultural companies, agricultural cooperation projects between Pyeongyang and Seoul will guarantee sustainability and effectiveness. Meanwhile, it is also crucial to design comprehensive support programs for market economy-oriented agricultural development plans led by Pyeongyang. Seoul should establish fiscal and financial support programs for the North Korean agricultural sector in cooperation with the global community while coming up with measures to support agricultural development plans conducted by the North Korean government when it reforms and opens up the country. Relevant cases for reference include the Special Accession Programme for Agriculture and Rural Development (SAPARD), a program planned by the EU to support market economy- oriented agricultural development in Central and Eastern Europe during their regime changes. For synergy effects between such fiscal and financial support programs, it is essential to maintain close cooperation with international development and cooperation organizations (the Food and Agriculture Organization, International Fund for Agricultural Development, United Nations Development Programme) and international development financial institutions (the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, International Monetary Fund).Researchers: Kim Young-hoon, Jeon Hyoung-jin, Sohn Hakgi, Park Joo-unResearch period: 2019. 1. ~ 2019. 10.Email address: kyhoon@krei.re.kr