육류 소비행태 변화와 대응과제

Abstract

식생활 패턴의 변화로 가정간편식(HMR) 시장이 성장하면서 가공육 시장에서 가격경쟁력이 있는 수입육의 점유율이 상승하고 있으며, 외식 시장에서는 유명 수입 브랜드육이 부각되고 있다. 국내산 육류가 경쟁력을 가지기 위해서는 소비행태 변화 내용과 소비자의 선호를 면밀히 분석하여 소비자 중심의 공급체계를 구축하는 것이 매우 중요하다.

이 연구는 육류 소비행태에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 사회경제적, 제도적, 과학 기술적 환경 변화 내용과 육류 소비구조를 살펴보고, 이를 토대로 육류 소비지출 구조와 대체 관계를 분석하고 육류 소비행태 변화를 분석하여 대응과제를 도출하는 데 목적이 있다.

Background and Purpose ○ Korea’s meat consumption has continuously increased with population growth and income improvement. However, there have been changes in meat consumption structures and behaviors due to demographic changes, including shrinking birth rates, aging, and increases in one-person or two-person families without children.

○ The emergence of meat substitutes made from plants or based on cultivation technologies, the increasing share of meat purchases through online markets, changes in the meat grading system, and life pattern changes from the 52-hour workweek system are likely to impact meat consumption behaviors.

○ This research first explores changes in consumption conditions and meat consumption structures, influencing meat consumption behaviors. Based on the inspection, it analyzes consumer spendings based on households’ socio-economic characteristics and meat’s substitute relationships by country of origin and grading of meat. It also carries out an analysis of consumers’ consumption state and looks into scientific, technological, and regulatory impacts on meat consumption. Based on the findings from these activities, this research intends to identify responsive tasks.

Research Methodology ○ We used the raw data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey produced by Statistics Korea to understand households’ meat consumption amount by socio-economic characteristic. We also used KANTAR’s consumer panel data and the time- series data of the Korea Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation to analyze meat’s substitute relationships. A linear approximated almost ideal demand system (LA/ AIDS), estimated in first differences, was applied for the analysis, too.

○ Concerning the analysis of meat consumers’ behavior changes, we used KREI’s Statistical Report on Food Consumption Behaviors (2013-2018). For the detailed analysis of meat consumption, we used Embrain’s consumer panels. Also, we used Big Kinds to analyze big data to understand changes in meat consumption trends for the past two decades.

○ To inspect the effects of regulatory changes, including the 52-hour workweek system and the meat grading system, we applied the meat consumption data and beef grading data to the ordered logit model and the DID (difference in differences) model. Lastly, we carried out focus group interviews targeting meat wholesalers and retailers and came up with responsive tasks based on the review of overall simulation results.

(For more information, please refer to the report.)