국제 곡물시장 분석과 수입방식 개선방안

Abstract

최근 들어 국제곡물 시장가격이 불안하면서 쌀을 제외한 대부분의 곡물을 수입에 의존하는 우리나라는 곡물 수급과 관련하여 우려의 목소리가 높아지고 있다. 또한 베일에 가려져 있는 다국적 곡물메이저들의 시장 지배력이 강화되면서 우리나라 곡물 수입시장에서의 비중도 높아지고 있는 것으로 파악되고 있다. 이 기업들은 현재까지 가족경영의 기반을 유지하기 때문에 재무 및 경영 자료를 일반에게 공개할 의무가 없어 연구를 위한 자료수집에 한계가 있다. 하지만 우리나라의 안정적 식량확보 및 곡물자립도 강화를 위해 필요한 자료를 입수하여 곡물메이저들의 국제시장 및 우리나라 곡물 수입시장에서의 역할 분석을 시도하였다. 또한 이 연구보고서에서는 우리나라가 과거부터 실행해오고 있는 공개경쟁입찰방식과 국제 곡물시장의 변동성을 고려하여 향후 발생할 수 있는 위험요소의 분산 및 안정적 곡물확보라는 측면에서 실증분석을 토대로 몇 가지 개선방안을 제시하고 있다.

The multinational grain traders, the, so-called, "grain majors," have been dominating in the international grain market, dealing with 80% of the global grain trade. At the same time, approximately 60% of Korea's grain imports has been supplied by them. Thus, the entire Korean grain import system under the influence of international market circumstances needs to be scrutinized. The objective of this study is to suggest alternative import strategies by considering the international grain industry and analyzing successful bidding prices in the Korean grain tenders between 2003 and 2008. The result of a cointegration analysis shows that there is a cointegration relationship between international grain prices and Korea's import tender prices, which implies that hedging in the futures market would be effective. Moreover, most of the volatility of international grain prices has been absorbed into the Korean grain import market, and there has not been an appropriate policy or strategy in the Korean grain industry. Furthermore, on average, the grain majors' market share has been over 60% for wheat, corn, and soybean, and it is on an increasing trend. The results from regression, simple statistic, and the origin related to practical suppliers analyses indicate that the grain majors supplied corn (wheat) at a lower (higher) price than non-majors in the entire period of the analysis. However, in the case of soaring international grain prices, the grain majors supply corn and wheat at much higher prices than non-majors. In addition, considering average prices, standard deviations, and variation indices, the grain major's prices have been relatively stable. In particular, when the international grain prices are skyrocketing, the grain majors market share increases dramatically. Meanwhile, Korea's dominant grain import strategy has been C&F Flat transaction. It is a simple way of purchasing grains, selecting lowest price in a public open tender. As a result, there is no way to disperse the risks coming from the international market. Thus, this study makes several suggestions: 1) utilize basis transactions in the international market, 2) make the best use of futures market based on the basis transaction, 3) initiate direct purchase system in major grain-producing countries, and 4) enhance government's role in the domestic grain industry.