가공식품물가의 장단기 변동요인과 대응방안

Abstract

기후변화 등으로 인하여 국제곡물가격이 상승하면서 서민물가의 하나인 식품물가가 상승하여 가계지출에 큰 부담을 주고 있다. 식품물가를 안정시키기 위한 물가대책이 지속적으로 추진되고 있다. 특히 국제곡물 신선농산물보다는 가공식품의 원료로 더 많이 사용되고 있어 그 자격상승이 가공식품물가에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다.

가공식품 물가안정을 위해서는 변동추세의 형태와 변동요인 및 영향도, 가공식품의 원가구성 등을 분석하는 것이 필요하다. 다양한 측면에서 가공식품 가격의 변동실태와 요인을 분석하고 또 가공식품의 원재료 시장구조와 수입실태 등에 대한 연구도 필요하다.

국제곡물가격을 안정시키는 방안은 우리나라가 마련하기 어려워 외생적으로 주어진 것으로 보아야 할 것이다. 가공식품의 원가에서 국제원자재가 차지하는 비중이 높아 가공식품 물가안정방안을 마련하는 것이 쉽지 않은 과제이다. 그렇지만 가공식품 가격변동의 폭이 더 심화되었는지, 어떤 요인이 크게 작용하고 있는지에 대한 정보는 가격안정정책을 마련하는데 기초정보가 된다.

이 연구는 가공식품 물가변동요인을 분석하고자 추진된 것이다.

Background of Research Recently the price of processed food is highly increasing due to rapid increase in international price of grains which become raw materials. The purpose of this research is to identify the actual state and characteristics of the changes in processed food price which takes up a large proportion in consumer expenditures and to analyze the factors which affect food prices. In the research, we identified the characteristics of changes in processed food price in the phase of price increase and the difference from past trend so that we can identify what are needed the most to control processed food prices. Based on the result of the analysis, we tried to identify the countermeasures for the control of processed food prices.

Method of Research In order to analyze the factors of change in processed food prices, the time-series analysis method was applied. The characteristics of price changes were analyzed using the GARCH model which is a time-series analysis model. Through conditional heteroscedasticity estimation, we tried to analyze whether the size of heteroscedasticity has been increasing as time passed. In order to differentiate from other preceding researches, casual relationships between food prices and macro-variables were verified and an impact reaction analysis was conducted using a vector error correction model. An input-output analysis was carried out to identify to what extent the changes in raw material prices including international grain prices affect domestic processed food prices.

Research Results and Implications Processed food prices show that not only they have been on an increasing trend over the analysis period but the range of temporary move off the trend line also has increased. Changes in processed food prices were not temporarily changed due to recent changes in international raw material prices but they have increased continuously following the trend line showing a bigger range of price changes in recent days. Even in consumers' household expenditures, the proportion of processed foods in the consumption expenditure has been continuously increasing even though their share is relatively low. Especially the lower the consumers' income level, the higher is the proportion of food consumption expenditure vs. income. And the proportion of consumption expenditure for processed foods in low income households was indicated to be relatively higher. Accordingly, stabilizing the price of processed foods to mitigate consumers' burden is an important policy task. As the proportion of raw material cost is high in the cost structure of processed foods, the biggest factor that affects the change in processed food prices is the change in the world market price of grains and other field crops. The next factor is the producer price level which exerts a significant influence on the production cost. Accordingly, purchasing and importing world market grains at stabilized price is an important task as the price affects the cost of processed foods. And the result of analysis showed that price change of processed food on the change in raw material prices was lower than the rate of change in world market price of grains. Although processed food prices are significantly affected by raw material prices, the influence of macro-economic variables such as foreign exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate did not appear in the short term (several months span) but did so in the medium term (approximately 1 year span). The influence of foreign exchange rate and interest rate appeared to be significant among the macro-economic variables. Especially the change in foreign exchange rate is a very important factor. The domestic currency import price index of raw materials was compared with the foreign currency import price index, and it showed that the domestic currency import price index is higher. In the analysis of asymmetric price adjustment of processed food in relation to raw material import price, the impact on the price was different in the price increasing period and the price decreasing period. In the rising period of international grain price, the change in processed food price appeared to be bigger whereas it was smaller in the decreasing period. This means that the control to minimize the influence during the increasing period of international grain price is relatively more important. As the market structure of primary processed foods such as flour, starch and edible oil is an oligopoly, where only a few enterprises are engaged in the production because of mechanization, distribution margin rate was higher in the price rising period. It is necessary to further expand the market structure of the raw materials to a more competitive system. One method to achieve this is to directly import intermediary raw materials in the form of finished goods. It is also necessary to develop and enhance the competitiveness of processed consumption foods that use domestic raw agricultural materials. In order to enhance the competitiveness of traditional processed foods which use domestic raw materials, an efficient supply system should be prepared for domestic raw agricultural products.

Researchers: Eui-Sik Hwang, Yun-Jae Hwang, Tae-Yi Kim Research Period: 2012. 1～2012. 12 E-mail address: eshwang@krei.re.kr