| dc.description.abstract | The aim of this study is to examine factors that cause the rapid decline of acreage of highland Chinese cabbage and radish in the last decade and to estimate the effect of each factor on acreage decreased.
The acreage of highland Chinese cabbage and radish was maintained or slightly increased in the 1990s, but in the 2000s, it has decreased very quickly. Therefore, the highland vegetable acreage in the Southern region almost disappeared, and the remaining highland vegetable acreage is centralized on Gangwon.
We investigate climate change, profitability change, increasing Kimchi import, supply policy change etc.
First, we examine the effect of climate change on vegetable yields and acreage in highland. Except 2010, there was no wild fluctuation in highland Chinese cabbage yields, and the temperature did not rise as much as the cultivation is not possible. However, in southern regions with higher temperature, a rise in temperature aggravated the salability of Chinese cabbage, while the increased temperature did not significantly affect the cultivation of Chinese cabbage. Hence, a unit price was declined and southern regions became less competitive for highland Chinese cabbage cultivation than Gangwon. The plunged cultivation area in southern regions resulted in the reduction of the total cultivation area of highland Chinese cabbage.
Second, we find out that the increase in operating costs and the worsened profitability are significant factors causing the cultivation area decrease in highland. This study shows that since 2000, there is high correlation within the profit loss and the acreage decrease.
Third, a change in the relative profitability of highland vegetables to other crops is another factor. In case of the highland area, due to the limitation of high altitude there was no wild fluctuation in acreage. However, in the semi-highland regions, there was a crop switch. We infer that crop switches in highland resulted from changes in relative profitability through a change in gross revenue.
Fourth, we consider a change in demand of highland vegetables. The demand for highland Chinese cabbage is relatively consistent and changes in demand result from price fluctuations of Chinese cabbage and radish. On the other hand, regardless of the prices and income level, the demand for highland radish is constantly decreasing.
Finally, because of its characteristics, a cultivation on speculation is the major proportion of highland cultivation. Governmental policies for stable supply and prices make price variation less vulnerable.
We expect that the highland Chinese cabbage acreage will be able to increase temporarily but will keep declining for a while. However, most of the decrease will be from the semi-highland in Gangwon, so the rate of decrease will be slowed and after all, the acreage will be maintained.
Researchers: Kim Tae-hun; Park Ji-yun; Park Young-gu
Research period: 2013. 9. 15. ~ 2014. 1. 31.
E-mail address: taehun@krei.re.kr | - |
