2020년~2025년 농업인력 수요 전망

Abstract

본 연구는 「농림어업총조사」의 농업주종사가구원을 농업인력으로 정의하고, 2020년~2025년에 대해 농업인력 수요를 전망하였다. 수요 전망에서는 경지면적당 농업주종사가구원을 사용하여 농업 내 기술변화를 반영하였고, 경지면적 예측치를 사용하여 농업인력 총수요를 전망하였다. 또한, 분할자료 회귀분석을 통해 주요 영농형태별 노동수요를 전망하였다. 분석 결과, 전체 농업인력 수요는 2020년에 약 136만 명, 2025년에 약 125만 명으로 전망되었다. 영농형태별로는 논벼와 과수에서 농업인력 수요가 감소하고, 채소와 특용작물에서 인력수요 증가가 두드러질 것으로 전망되었다.

This paper forecasted agricultural labor demand for the period 2020~2025 in Korea. Agricultural labor was measured as farm household members mainly engaged in agricultural production. We used the data from the Korean Census of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. We projected the total demand for agricultural labor using the agricultural workforce per agricultural land area (reflecting the changes in agricultural technology) and the forecasts of agricultural land area. Also, labor demand for different types of farming was projected using compositional data regression. The forecast results show that the total demand for agricultural labor would be approximately 1.36 million and 1.25 million in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Inspecting the types of farming, we identified that labor demand would likely to increase considerably for vegetables and specialty crops. In contrast, a substantial decrease was expected for rice and fruits.